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4) Utah Jazz vs. 5) Houston Rockets

1st Round Series Schedule (EST)
Game 1: UTA 93 - HOU 82
Game 2: UTA 90 - HOU 84
Game 3: HOU 94 - UTA 92
Game 4: HOU 82 - UTA 86
Game 5: UTA 69 - HOU 95
Game 6: HOU 91 - UTA 113
Jazz win series 4-2

Regular Season Series
Nov. 1 : HOU 106 - at UTA 95
Jan. 27 : UTA 97 - at HOU 89
Apr. 14 : at UTA 105 - HOU 96
Utah wins series 2-1

 

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Game 6 and Series Recap
The Jazz finally were able to impose their will and take advantage of the beaten and battered Houston Rockets.  Despite another great performance from Tracy McGrady with 40 points, the Jazz collectively were just too much for a team that ended up shooting 39% from the field and 69% from the free throw line.  Deron Williams had a great game with 25 points and 9 assists with just a single turnover.  The Jazz had 7 players score in double figures and the team committed just 5 turnovers in the entire ball game.  For Houston, Bobby Jackson shot just 2 for 12 from the field and Aaron Brooks was 0 for 5.  The Rockets simply didn’t have another component to go to on offense like Yao Ming would’ve provided. 

The Rockets just don’t have a complete enough team to compete in the playoffs.  They have solid role players, but nobody that can consistently step up and knock down the big shot when needed the most.  Tracy McGrady can’t do it all, especially when he’s struggling in the 4th quarter like he did in this series and playing injured.  The Rockets have no inside scoring presence without Yao Ming, which allowed the Jazz to play the perimeter shooters and dominate the boards throughout this series. 

Why Utah Won This Series- A poor and sub-.500 road team going into the playoffs, the Jazz were able to steal the first two games of the series in Houston and head back to Utah with a 2-0 lead.  That was huge in terms of relief for the players that possibly thought they would struggle on the road and due to the fact that it put all of the pressure on a team with inferior talent.  The Rockets ended up having to win in the toughest arena in the league.  This set the tone for the series and all but guaranteed a Jazz series victory very early on.  

Why Houston Lost This Series-
The Rockets were absolutely terrible in the fourth quarters of nearly every game in this series.  Tracy McGrady had just 31 fourth quarter points in this series and 12 of those came in the final game, which was a blowout.  So in 5 games, he had just 19 points in the fourth quarter.  When the team relies on him to score when it’s crunch time, that’s simply not going to get it done.  Andrei Kirilenko did a great job on him and that is a big reason why the Rockets couldn’t get anything going to close out games. 

Series X-Factor- Andrei Kirilenko
If just for his defense, he was the difference maker in this series.  He was too long for McGrady to comfortably shoot over.  He was too quick for McGrady to comfortably drive past.  He positioned his body perfectly to make McGrady work to get the ball.  A lot of what he did will never show up in the box score, but he positively affected the Jazz with his defense and made the Rockets’ offensive plan a pain to execute. 

Looking Forward to Next Round-
The Jazz find themselves going against the #1 seeded Lakers and will have to figure out a way to continue their post-season success on the road.  They’ll have to realistically steal two games in L.A. in this series because the Lakers are definitely good enough to steal at least one game in Utah.  The key to this series will be the play of Mehmet Okur.  If he can match Pau Gasol, then the Lakers will have a hard time finding scoring inside. 

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Game 5 Recap
This game was one of the ugliest performances that I’ve ever seen in a NBA Playoff game.  Not one redeeming or interesting quality came out of watching or experiencing this game.  The Jazz completely shit the bed in this one and came out with an effort that made me question how good this team really is.  They scored over 16 points in a quarter just once during this game when they broke through with an “impressive” 23 points during the third quarter.  The Jazz shot 36.5% from the field, 2 of 9 from three and missed 10 of their 23 free throws.  Throw in 18 turnovers to 15 assists and I think Jeff Hornacek just threw up on his desk.  Not one single player came to play in a game that could have advanced them to the next round.  You can’t pass up on games that you need to win in the playoffs.  Title teams don’t miss those opportunities.  I thought the Jazz were title contenders until this game. 

As for Houston, they played well enough to cruise in this game, but they didn’t do anything spectacular.  They were essentially given this game by the terrible performance of the Utah Jazz.  Tracy McGrady had an ugly 29 points on 26 shots from the field.  Their first half performance was almost as equally terrible as Utah’s and capitalized on a lackluster effort in the second half.  They also let T-Mac score some unnecessary points in the fourth quarter so that he could have some confidence heading into the fourth quarter of game 6 in Utah. 

Looking ahead to Game 6- This is a must win game for both teams.  The Jazz went into Houston in last year’s playoffs and won a game 7, but everybody does that.  The Rockets obviously have to win to stay alive and the Jazz have to win to avoid giving away two elimination games in a row.  Couple of things for the Jazz to work for:
1) Run the ball.  Get some transition points in this game early and open up the tempo.  If you allow yourselves to get sucked into a slow down game with the Rockets, they’ll bore you to death and end up on top at the end of the game.
2) Attack the basket.  There wasn’t enough determination to get to the rim by Utah in game 5 and they need to correct that by getting aggressive.  Deron Williams needs to abuse whoever is guarding him by going into the paint and possibly posting up.  That will open up the three-point attack, which will be essential. 
3) Act like you care.  Some emotion out of Utah would be nice in this game.  Jerry Sloan should’ve gotten himself thrown out of game 5 to try to ignite some feeling into the Jazz.  They aren’t playing with enough worry and they might end up giving away this series that way. 
Prediction for Game 6: Utah closes it out by 8. 

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Game 4 Recap
The key to the Jazz win was in the decisive 2nd quarter where the game got away from Houston.  The Rockets only scored 15 points in the 2nd thanks to 5 for 20 shooting and a 4-minute and 36-second scoreless stretch that spanned the middle of the quarter.  The Jazz were able to score 25 points in this quarter thanks to getting to the line 12 times and hitting 11 of those free throws.  Houston just consistently shot themselves in the foot during this game as they missed a lot of shots that they should have made.  They shot a Jason Kidd-caliber 36.7% from the field in this game and missed 8 free throws, 3 of them in the 4th quarter.  The Jazz were able to lock up the Houston scorers as they contained Tracy McGrady to 23 points on 25 shots.  Andrei Kirilenko has been so great in guarding T-Mac during the final quarters that it has completely killed the flow of the game for Houston.  McGrady was held to 4 points in the 4th. 

For Utah, they relied on a team effort as they won an ugly 86-82 game without anybody really shining for them.  Okur and Boozer both had big games with 14 points a piece and 18 rebounds for Okur as Boozer garnered 14 for himself.  They completely controlled the glass and without Carl Landry getting all 6 of his rebounds on the offensive end, Utah would’ve dominated Houston on the boards.  Utah was able to win despite missing all 14 of their three-point attempts and extended their series lead to 3-1. 

Looking forward to Game 5: Houston has to find a way to get Tracy McGrady going so that they can get some flow offensively.  Here are a couple of ways to get this done:
1) Pick and Roll.  Someone (Scola, Landry) needs to start setting McGrady some picks.  He has the ability to get by someone like Ronnie Brewer one-on-one but he simply can’t score one-on-one against Kirilenko.  Kirilenko is a great on the ball pest (they said the same thing about John Amaechi) and is simply too good of a defender for a battered and bruised McGrady to get by on his own. 
2) Get rough.  When you set those screens for McGrady, you need to lay into Kirilenko.  If the Rockets can play rough and knock AK to the ground on screens and lay-up attempts then he’ll be rattled enough for McGrady to gain the psychological advantage on him.  You don’t have to be dirty, but a couple of shots like Jason Kidd gave to Jannero Pargo wouldn’t hurt. 
3) Someone step up and hit a shot.  If someone on the Rockets can give some effective and efficient scoring alongside Tracy then it will open up the floor for him.  He’s much better as a playmaker than a just a scorer so if you can get him into that role, he’ll be much more confident. 
Prediction for Game 5: Utah closes out Houston in another close and frustrating game for the Rockets. 

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Game 3 Recap
Skip to my victory?  Maybe the thing that was missing in the first two games was stability.  And that’s what Rafer Alston brought to the Rockets in Game 3 as he helped them avoid a dooming 0-3 start.  Rafer missed the first 2 games of the series with a hamstring injury but looked pretty good in Game 3 scoring 20 points on 8-14 shooting from the field.  He also had 5 assists and 1 turnover.  Rafer’s presence in the lineup gave the Rockets so many more options with their offense and rotation.  Bobby Jackson was able to just be energy off the bench instead of a quarterback.  Tracy McGrady didn’t have to be the only playmaker on the court.  The Rockets were now able to go 9 deep effectively instead of 8 deep.  It just gave the Rockets a much-needed boost that they couldn’t find in the first 2 games.

For Utah, Mehmet Okur had a rough game. He ended up with 12 points and 11 rebounds, but he shot 3 for 13 from the field and missed 3 free throws.  Aside from Matt Harpring’s 10 points off the bench, the rest of the bench was completely ineffective.  Houston was also able to neutralize Andrei Kirilenko and not allow him to get easy buckets.  Deron Williams was great with 28 points and 12 assists but came up short on the potential game-winning shot.  He drove the lane and had a short jumper blocked by Carl Landry (who then got kissed by Rafer Alston).  Utah shot themselves in the foot from the free throw line by going 20 for 33. 

Looking forward to Game 4: The Jazz need to get Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko going to be able to keep the Rockets’ defense honest. The things that the Jazz need for going up 3 games to 1:
1) Okur and Kirilenko need to combine for 35 points or more.  If you can get Kirilenko to run the floor and get wide-open shots for Okur (and Houston’s rotation to Okur was terrible in Game 3), then the Jazz will have some offensive help to take pressure off of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. 
2) Capitalize on turnovers.  The Jazz only had 8 points off of the 9 Rockets’ turnovers.  They need to get that turnover number around 15 and the points off those turnovers to around 20. 
Prediction for Game 4: Utah wins by just under 10.   


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Game 2 Recap
There are two issues from game 2 that need to be covered first and foremost.  The first one is the infamous Kirilenko Flop.  The second is the play of Tracy McGrady in the 4th quarter.  There are other issues for this ball game and this series in general but these seem to be the two that people care about the most.

1) The Kirilenko Flop- Andrei Kirilenko seemed to flop during a key play in the last minute of the ball game when the Rockets fought for the offensive rebound, Luther Head grabbed it in the corner as Luis Scola attempted to block out AK and then a foul was called as a skip pass cross court went to Bobby Jackson who hit what would’ve been the game-tying three pointer.  The foul was called because Luis Scola raised his arms and his right hand went near the neck of Andrei.  He may or may not have slightly brushed Kirilenko and the ref with a bad angle (but also the only ref with any kind of angle) decided to call the foul. 

Now, was the foul more of a flop than violation of contact rules in basketball?  Absolutely.  But was it a smart move by Kirilenko?  Of course.  Was it a dumb play by Scola?  Definitely.  Kirilenko made a heady play and with the ref having a bad angle, it worked out.  But Luis Scola is experienced enough (international ball not necessarily NBA) to not put his hands anywhere near the neck or head of another player, especially someone that is a foreign player.  And what do we know about foreign players?  They flop.  It was definitely a bad call by the referee but Scola should have never put himself in that situation with an unnecessary box out after the ball was secured.

2) Tracy McGrady has been horrible in the fourth quarter in this series.  He hasn’t made a shot yet.  He took only three shots again in the quarter and hit one free throw.  And he played 10 minutes of that 4th quarter, so I find it hard to believe that McGrady could only get 3 shots off.  A big part of the reason is Andrei Kirilenko’s defense.  He’s been fantastic in neutralizing Tracy McGrady.  Between AK and Ronnie Brewer, they’ve worn him out by the time the fourth quarter comes (which T-Mac admits that he’s tired).  But McGrady needs to suck it up.  Everybody is tired at this point in the season.  Everybody is running on fumes except for Steve Francis who is running on Krispy Kremes.  McGrady needs to become a smarter player and save some energy for the fourth quarter.  Part of this blame should go to Rick Adelman who once again can’t seem to figure it out in the post season.  And part of the blame needs to go to his teammates who need to step up and give this guy some help.  But the rest falls on McGrady who needs to figure out how to be the franchise player that he’s alleged to be in the next 2 games and send this series back to Houston. 

Looking ahead to Game 3:
The Jazz are at home now where they had the best record in the NBA (37-4).  They are looking to sweep this series and turn it into a nice tune-up for the Lakers in round 2.  Unless McGrady can get some help from guys besides Shane Battier and Bobby Jackson, the Rockets should start planning their summer vacations.
Prediction for Game 3: It’s now or never for the Rockets to make this a series.  The rebounding hasn’t been terrible and their defense has slowed down this normally fast-paced team.  However, this Jazz team seems to be able to close against these guys and as San Antonio is proving, that’s the most important advantage to have over an opponent.  Utah wins by double digits. 

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Game 1 Recap
This Jazz-Rockets series may not even be as close as I had predicted.  I felt pretty strongly about the fact that the Rockets really shouldn’t have a chance to win a series against a really good team like Utah without Yao Ming.  If Andrei Kirilenko scored and they couldn’t keep AK from getting out in transition and secondary fastbreaks then Houston would have a hard time making it a game.  And that’s exactly what happened in Game 1 of this series (21 points on 8-12 shooting).  The 93-82 score didn’t feel as close as it looked when watching this game.  Deron Williams was simply too much of a problem for Bobby Jackson and Aaron Brooks during this game.  It wasn’t the fact that he had 20 points and 10 assists in this game.  It was how efficiently he did it and how he kept the defense on their heels every time down the floor that made this game seem like a Jazz blowout from the start. 

The dynamic of the 5th seed having the home-court advantage of the 4th seed gave this series a confusing look to some experts but the troubles of the Jazz on the road were greatly over exaggerated.  The Jazz were 10-11 against playoff teams on the road this season.  Now even though that isn’t a great record for a top playoff team, it isn’t like they can’t win on the road.  They won their only game in Houston this season so they had plenty of confidence about winning key games on the road.  They appeared to be completely comfortable on Saturday against the hometown team and didn’t seem fazed by a pretty good Rockets’ crowd. 

The thing with the Rockets in this game is that they just felt like a much less talented team (which they are but haven’t played as such for the past 3 months).  Tracy McGrady went down on the floor with an injury a few times and that really seemed to take the wind out of the Rockets’ sails.  And if you think that the injuries weren’t that important, just look at the fact that Kyle Korver guarded him for much of the fourth quarter and McGrady didn’t score.  Considering McGrady’s 27 injuries and the fact that Rafer Alston missed the game, the Rockets really needed big performances from their backup guards.  However, Bobby Jackson and Aaron Brooks combined to go 4 for 22 from the field, 1 of 10 from the three-point line and scored just 12 points while adding just 4 assists. 

So looking forward, the Rockets have to solve a couple of problems. 
1) They must get T-Mac going in the fourth quarter.  Shane Battier (even though he was hitting) should never take more shots than McGrady in the 4th. 
2) Hit their free throws.  You can’t miss 11 free throw attempts in the Western Conference Playoffs and expect to win. 
3) Move the ball around.  Just 15 assists on 29 made shots for the Rockets and if you take away T-Mac’s 7 assists then you basically have the ball movement of an And 1 game.

Prediction for Game 2- Either the Rockets win big to tie it 1-1 or the Jazz win a close one and go up 2-0 heading back to Utah.  There’s no in between. 

Series Preview
Everybody, including myself, is still trying to figure out if this Rockets team is for real.  Forget about the idea of whether or not Tracy McGrady can carry a team past the first round.  The rest of the team has to give him some help.  This isn’t a league anymore where one guy can carry a team through the toughest conference.  Guys like Rafer Alston, Bobby Jackson, and Luther Head have to be deadly from outside in this series for them to match the firepower of Utah.  When the Rockets can spread the floor, McGrady doesn’t have to face constant double teams.  The rotations are usually late because they can’t commit to leaving the shooters.  When that happens, McGrady can just be patient and make the correct play.  On defense, they have to keep guys like Andrei Kirilenko and Ronnie Brewer from contributing.  If you’re giving up 25 points a piece to Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams, and Carlos Boozer then you’re in good shape as long as nobody else is getting into double figures. 

For Utah, they just need to keep the tempo at a fast pace.  Allowing Deron Williams to react on a fastbreak and secondary fastbreak gives him a huge advantage over the guards of Houston.  When the tempo is high, Kirilenko and Brewer can get out, run, and just be athletes all game.  Guys like Battier and Landry won’t be able to keep up and when the second unit comes in, it will give Paul Milsap easy buckets and Kyle Korver wide open threes.  As well as Houston’s bench played for most of the season, Utah’s bench has a lot more firepower and should be able to take advantage of that.  With Boozer, Okur, and Kirilenko rebounding well, they should be able to control the glass and really overwhelm Houston in most categories. 

I don’t really think that Houston is equipped to play with such a good team for 7-games.  If they had Yao Ming, they’d have a lot more options and versatility, but without the big man, it’s just too hard for them to match up inside.  This series should be a great warm-up to get ready for the Lakers in the next round. 
Prediction: Jazz in 6 games 

Point Guard - Deron Williams vs. Rafer Alston
Deron Williams has turned himself into one of the best point guards in the NBA. He had a monster playoffs last year and with the Rockets here for another go around, this year shouldn't be any different. Rafer Alston might miss a game or two because of a hamstring injury he suffered in the last week of season. If he does heal, he will need to be a dead-eye shooter when called upon to keep the Jazz defense honest.
Advantage - Huge Advantage to Utah
Shooting Guard - Ronnie Brewer vs. Tracy McGrady
Ronnie Brewer appears to be overmatched against McGrady but he's a solid defender and a great athlete in the open court. He's not going to stop McGrady but he and Kirilenko need to take advantage when they trap. McGrady once again has to carry a less talented team through the first round against an exceptional opponent. Nothing short of 35 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists will get this team past the first round. T-Mac must stay healthy.
Advantage - Huge Advantage to Houston
Small Forward - Andrei Kirilenko vs. Shane Battier
Somebody get this guy some anti-depressants and turn him into the all around threat that he used to be. When AK-47 is running the court, he's one of the best players in the league. When he's not, you want anybody but him on the floor. Battier has to be successful from downtown in this series and continue his all world defense. He'll be asked to guard Deron Williams in crunch time and if he can slow him down and force him into bad shots, he'll be invaluable.
Advantage - Slight Advantage to Houston
Power Forward - Carlos Boozer vs. Luis Scola
Carlos Boozer has to have a 30 points and 15 rebounds kind of series to ensure that the Jazz move onto the second round. He doesn't have to do anything special but rebound and be a load in the post. Luis Scola isn't a strangerto big games like this. He's an Olympic champion that will not back down because the big stage is here. He'll be a difficult match-up for Boozer because he will not back down or be out muscled.
Advantage - Significant Advantage to Utah
Center - Mehmet Okur vs. Dikembe Mutombo
Mehmet Okur just has to do one thing to be effective in this series -- make outside shots. If he can draw Mutombo away from the paint, he'll render him useless for much of this series. If Okur is not hitting his jumpers then he'll need to offensive rebound. Mutombo just has to give the Rockets 25 minutes of rebound grabbing and shot blocking basketball. He shouldn't get under 10 rebounds and 3 blocks per night and if he does, Adelman won't feel confident in playing him. Also, one look at that jump hook may make the Jazz players sick to their stomachs.
Advantage - Edge to Utah
Jazz Bench vs. Rockets' Bench
Kyle Korver and Paul Milasp will both be highly effective off the bench but the combination of Jason Hart and Ronnie Price playing point will be the key. Deron Williams can't play 44 minutes per night. Carl Landry and Bobby Jackson will be the key energy guys off the bench but Luther Head will be the key. He HAS to be an assassin in this series. If he can't keep the defense honest, then he might as well be Steve Francis out there.
Advantage - Even
Coaching - Jerry Sloan vs. Rick Adelman
Jerry Sloan has done an underrated thing in terms of adapting to his team. He'll force the tempo in an attempt to force the Houston guards into a wreckless place and lots of turnovers. Rick has never been convincing as a steady playoff coach but since Yao Ming is long gone, he'll have very little pressure. He's allowed this team to go out and make plays with defense and long range shooting.
Advantage - Edge to Utah
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