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3) Orlando Magic vs. 6) Toronto Raptors

1st Round Series Schedule (EST)
Game 1: TOR 100 - ORL 114
Game 2: TOR 103 - ORL 104
Game 3: ORL 94 - TOR 108
Game 4: ORL 106 - TOR 94
Game 5: TOR 92 - ORL 102
Magic win series 4-1

Regular Season Series
Nov. 7 : ORL 105 - at TOR 96
Feb. 20 : at TOR 127 - ORL 110
Mar. 4 : at ORL 102 - TOR 87
Orlando wins series 2-1

 

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Game 5 and Series Recap
Now that this series is over, the questions begin to pour in trying to figure out what went right for the Magic and what went wrong for the Raptors.  Was it simply a matter of Sam Mitchell being a bad coach?  Was it a matter of Stan Van Gundy being a really good coach?  Did it have to do with guys like Jameer Nelson playing better than they are or guys like Jose Calderon and TJ Ford not playing up to their ability?  There are many reasons that this game ended Monday night with a whimper on Toronto’s part.  Once again, they couldn’t stop Dwight Howard from dominating the middle (by the way, Dwight Howard had another Hugh Downs game with 21 points and 21 rebounds, 10 offensive).  They couldn’t stop Hedo Turkoglu from being a playmaker.  He only had 12 points and didn’t hit a three, but he grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists.  They couldn’t keep Rashard Lewis off the boards, even though he isn’t a great rebounder.  He had 18 points to go along with his 13 rebounds.  And Jameer Nelson lit up the Raps for 19 points. 

Toronto was absolutely dominated on the boards, giving up 55 rebounds compared to the 38 they grabbed as a team.  Chris Bosh had the best game for the Raptors but it took him 19 shots to get 16 points.  The only thing they did right as a team was keep their turnovers low at 6 (4 of them were Ford’s).  During this series, the Raptors played inept offense and compounded that with poor defensive rotation throughout nearly every game.  So let’s break down where it went wrong:

Why the Magic Won- The Magic played really well at a pace that you would have thought would benefit the Raptors roster.  They were running and gunning almost the entire series and that created huge mismatch problems and rotation issues for Toronto.  Dwight Howard was a man too.  He AVERAGED 22.6 points and 18.2 rebounds per game.  That’s ridiculous.  Rashard Lewis was able to chip in with 18 points and 8 rebounds per game and the Magic just completely annihilated the Raps on the boards.  If Orlando can get this kind of production and consistent effort, they might find themselves playing in the Eastern Conference Finals in a couple of weeks. 

Why the Raptors Lost-
For Toronto, they averaged 7 more shots per game than Orlando but managed 5 points per game fewer than what the Magic scored.  They simply couldn’t get into a rhythm on offense and their point guard play was a big reason.  Ford had a couple of decent games but he struggled against Jameer Nelson and surprisingly it didn’t get much better when Calderon was in the game.  Calderon definitely played better than Ford but he still was very inconsistent compared to his play during the regular season.  The fact that Jorge Garbajosa (a very underrated part of this team) missed his second straight post season with the Raptors and Andrea Bargnani filled in by taking a dump on national television every night maybe was the biggest key to Toronto not being able to hang with a team like Orlando. 

Series X-Factor- Jameer Nelson
Jameer Nelson answered the critics that thought Calderon and Ford would exploit him as the weakness of this Orlando team.  He averaged 17 points per game in this series and hit some big shots in game 4.  I didn’t expect him to play well at all and he proved just about everybody but Grandma Nelson wrong. 

Looking ahead to the next round- Orlando has to be hoping that they play Philadelphia because it will be tough for them to beat out a focused Detroit Pistons team.  The Pistons seem to feast on the Magic in the post season and will try to exploit the perceived mismatch of Chauncey Billups vs. Jameer Nelson.  The key for them will be the play of Hedo Turkoglu.  He was a good playmaker in this series but it will be much harder to do the same types of things against Tayshaun Prince. 

Game 4 Recap
As I said in the recap below, every time Dwight Howard has a Hugh Downs’ game (20-20), I tell everybody I know that he’s a man.  Well, there’s another way for him to qualify as a man without going Barbara Walters sidekick on us.  Put up 19 points, 16 rebounds and block 8 shots.  That’s a man-sized game for you.   So once again, Dwight Howard is a man.  This was a game that the Magic really had to have.  Going back to Orlando tied 2-2 wouldn’t have been the worst thing in the world, but it would have taken all of the pressure off of Toronto.  Toronto was setting an upward trend after getting manhandled in Game 1, barely losing in Game 2 and getting a solid victory over Orlando in Game 3.  This was a complete team effort around Dwight’s dominance of the painted area.  Jameer got hot late and finished with 19 points.  Hedo on the eve of being officially recognized as the NBA’s Most Improved Player had 18 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals, which helped overcome his 7 turnovers.  Rashard Lewis had a great game with 27 points and 13 rebounds. 

For Toronto, they did a great job of taking care of the ball with just 9 turnovers as a team.  But they shot the ball poorly (43.5%) and shot pathetically from three-point range (2/15).  Chris Bosh answered the questions of his manhood, fanhood, and leadership abilities with a 39-point, 15-rebound performance but didn’t get a whole lot of help.  He received double digit scoring from TJ Ford, Anthony Parker, and Jason Kapono but they all topped out at 12 points.  Bargnani and Calderon had terrible games, combining for 7 points on 2/14 shooting.   Toronto blew this game in the 4th quarter due to poor shooting and poor perimeter defense.  They shot 9 for 24 in the final quarter including 5 straight misses in the final 2 minutes before a meaningless Chris Bosh dunk for their final points of the contest.  Orlando on the other hand hit 5 three-pointers in the 4th quarter to close out what was a close game. 

Looking forward to Game 5: The Raptors need to take better care of business in a couple of key areas to avoid elimination.
1) WWJCD.  This doesn’t have anything to do with religion; it has to do with Jose Calderon.  For Toronto to avoid going fishing for the summer, they need to get Jose Calderon going.  As he goes, they go and if he can get going, they’ll have a real chance at getting back to Toronto for more than a fan appreciation celebration.  Calderon has to go double-double to get the Raptors one more game. 
2) Hit a damn outside shot.  The Raptors have to make some outside shots to keep the defense honest.  Orlando was funneling everything inside because Toronto couldn’t hit from long range and Dwight Howard was taking care of the rest. 
3) Make Dwight Howard beat you.  Dwight Howard is almost the exact same as a young Shaquille O’Neal.  That means that you have to allow him to get his points and shut down the rest of his complimentary weapons.  When Lewis and Turkoglu are allowed to make plays, it gives guys like Keith Bogans and Jameer Nelson the space to be effective.  Let Dwight Howard go for 50 and key in on the rest of the roster. 
Prediction for Game 5: Raptors get screwed late in the game.  Orlando advances. 

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Game 3 Recap
Looking forward to this game (as soon in the Game 2 Recap below), I said that the Raptors needed to push the ball with TJ Ford and wreak havoc in the open court. That’s exactly what the Raptors did as they took their first home game of the series and avoided a nearly insurmountable 0-3 deficit.  Ford and Jose Calderon combined to annihilate the Magic’s backcourt like they were expected to coming into this series.  Ford had 21 points on 7 for 11 shooting and Jose Calderon (this summer’s $50 million man) had 18 points, 13 assists and 7 rebounds off the bench.  Jamario Moon also decided to show up to the series by scoring 11 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 4 assists.  The Raptors had an impressive 31 assists on 42 made shots and they held the Magic to just 15 assists as a team. 

For Orlando, they killed themselves on long range shooting. They made just 6 of 27 shots from three-point range.  The Magic’s big three of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard had good games but nobody else really got going for Orlando.  When you add Jameer Nelson’s 6 points to Maurice Evans’ total, you get a grand total of 6 points from that ball game.  The Magic did not defend the basket well either with just one block shot in the game (from Rashard Lewis) and they let Toronto get whatever they wanted around the hoop. 

Looking forward to Game 4: Orlando has to re-assert their dominance and find their three point shooting.  The things they can’t let the Raptors do are:
1.  Don’t let Toronto control the paint.  They had far too many easy buckets and out-rebounded the Magic by 11.  Dwight Howard may have to put Hugh Downs’ games (20-20 games) on the Raptors every time out for the Magic to dominate the paint. 
2.  Don’t let Toronto control the perimeter either.  Toronto hit 12 threes and only gave up 6 to the Magic, which was a stark contrast to Game 1.  Orlando has to get into rhythm from long range and hurt the Raptors with it early.  Not only will that give them a well-balanced attack, but they’ll be able to open up the inside for Dwight Howard because of it. 
Prediction Game 4: Toronto will give the Magic another close game.  But I see Hedo Turkoglu dominating in the 4th quarter and hitting a game winner.  Magic win in a close one. 

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Game 2 Recap
This was the game that I was hoping for in Game 1.  And let me start out by saying this – Dwight Howard is a man.  He’s just a flat out man.  There aren’t many men in the NBA anymore.  A lot of phonies and wannabe men exist in this league, but Dwight Howard is a man.  It was only the 6th time in the past 30 years that someone had two straight Hugh Downs’ games (20-20).  Don’t feel sorry for Raptors fans.  Don’t feel sorry for Rasho Nesterovic. Feel sorry for everybody I know.  It’s a stone cold lock that for the rest of my life, whenever Dwight Howard posts a Hugh Downs game, I will let everybody in my life know that Dwight Howard is a man.  When he grabbed #20 during this game, I told our resident cynic, Andy Eisner, that Dwight Howard was a man.  Then I texted Talkhoops.net senior writer, Phillip Barnett, that Dwight Howard was a man.  I told my dog that Dwight Howard is a man and he ran to the door (either he was afraid of Dwight Howard or he heard the neighbors get home).  In case, you haven’t picked up on the theme of this paragraph – Dwight Howard is a man. 

This was a tough one for Raptors’ fans to endure because it was a game that the Raptors should’ve stolen on the road.  Chris Bosh, Jason Kapono, and a couple of Euros (Jose Calderon and Chuck Delfino) kept the Raptors in it.  The starting lineup, outside of Chris Bosh, was just pathetic.  It helped Orlando jump to a 35-18 lead after the first quarter.  Then the bench came in and Jose Calderon showed why he’s going to make $50 million this summer.  Anthony Parker was scoreless in 38 minutes.  TJ Ford was 1-8 shooting.  And Andrea Bargnani combined with Rasho Nesterovic to score 11 points.  But Calderon, Chuck, and Kapono combined for 54 off the bench.  A lot of people have criticized Chris Bosh for taking a 19-footer at the end of the game for the win and it’s completely unwarranted.  Bosh on the previous possession with a chance to score was fouled on a play towards the hoop and there wasn’t a foul called.  He had a wide-open (as wide-open as one can be with a man like Dwight Howard guarding him) jumper to take and he took it.  It just happened to miss.  Jose Calderon screwed up the play and that was the bail out.  You can’t fault Bosh for that.  You never want to put the game in the refs’ hands.  Bosh has had game-winners just like that before. This time, it didn’t drop. 

Looking ahead to Game 3: We’re heading back to Toronto for this one. It’s the first Game 3 of the playoffs for any series and obviously a must win for the Raps.  So far in this series, Dwight Howard, who is still a man, has dominated them.  In the second game, the three-point blitzkrieg by Orlando wasn’t there.  They shot 9-31 from the dome and had to rely on being just a little bit better than Toronto to win.  But to win game 3, they have to do a couple of things:
1) It’s time to push the ball with TJ Ford.  He’s only going to be effective in the open court.  Otherwise, get his ass out of there and put Calderon in. 
2) Get Anthony Parker involved early.  He’s most effective when he’s hit a couple of threes early on in the game.  Ford has to create shots for Parker in the opening minutes.  Forget Bosh to start the game.  He’s going to get his.  Get the other guys involved offensively. 
3) Make Dwight Howard beat you.  Howard happened to beat them this game, but it just barely happened.  Hedo went 0-4 from long range, Shard went 0-9 from long range and Mo Evans didn’t go off like in Game 1.  As long as they keep the perimeter in check and manage to guard the paint a little, this strategy will work.  Give Howard 50 and enjoy the win. 

Prediction for Game 3:  Raptors win a close one.  I really want to pick the Magic to go up 3-0 but the Raptors are a decent home team that will be looking to gun in this game.  I would look for Jose Calderon to do his best Steve Nash impression and someone like Jason Kapono to go off in the second half. 

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Game 1 Recap
What in the name of Zan Tabak happened to the Raptors on Sunday?  That was a good old fashion ass-kicking that reminded Raptors’ fans of the days when it was better to have a motivated Mo Pete in round 1 than a unmotivated Vince Carter (I realize the redundancy).  Make no mistake about it that this game was never close.  Remember in the Kansas-UNC game when Kansas was up big and North Carolina made its comeback, using up all of their energy, which guaranteed that they wouldn’t have enough fuel to finish the comeback?  That’s exactly how this game felt.  Orlando jumped out to a huge lead early on and almost ran the Raptors off of the court.  9 of 11 from three-point range is not bad at all for a game.  In fact, that’s damn near historic.  So when you do that in the first quarter alone, you know that you’re in for a good night. 

Here’s the thing about the Raptors, unless the Jose Calderon-Chris Bosh tandem is working at a high level, it’s really hard for everybody else to find something to feed off of. And you don’t have any energy or production to feed off of and you’re already a not great defensive team, then you’re bound to get blown out in the playoffs.  Magic dropped 43 points and shot 16 of 20 from the field in the first quarter.  That is absurd production.  Throw in the fact that Maurice Evans hit 4 threes, Jameer Nelson’s corpse did an impression of a good basketball player by scoring 24 and Dwight Howard had 25 points, 22 rebounds, and 6 blocks and it’s amazing that the Raptors were able to cut it close (down to 5 at one point in the fourth) late in the game. 

Above all, the most telling thing to me is that Hedo Turkoglu emerged as someone that nobody on the Raptors can guard.   Hedo was an unstoppable force, especially with Andrea Bargnani starting over Jamario Moon, which was a terrible decision.  Hedo is the #1 playmaker on Orlando and unless the Raptors figure out a way to slow him down and get the ball out of his hands, they’re probably looking at a maximum of one win. 

Looking forward, the Raptors need to change some things in Game 2:
1) Get Joey Graham in the game.  I know that it doesn’t sound like a smart thing to put in a player with one of the lowest basketball IQs in league history, but he might be the answer to Hedo Turkoglu.  Bargnani has no chance and Jamario Moon isn’t strong enough but Joey Graham is strong and athletic enough to possibly give him fits.  At least try it for a quarter. 
2) Figure out what you’re running.  What the hell happened to Sam Mitchell?  Does he just forget what his team is best at running?  He tried to implement way too many wrinkles into the offense and it looked like none of the Raptors knew what they were doing.  Wait until the next game before you start making adjustments. 
3) Guard the perimeter.  Orlando was only 4 for 18 from three after the first quarter but 13 threes in a game by a team is way too many to give up.  Guard the perimeter and if Dwight Howard scores 50, so be it. 
4) Keep fouling Dwight Howard.  Speaking of Dwight, keep fouling him.  If he makes 9 of 11 free throws every game in this series than you live with that, but for a 55% shooter, the chances of their aren’t very good.  Put his ass on the line.

Prediction for Game 2: Orlando wins a tight one. 

Series Preview
Orlando couldn’t have asked for a better opponent in round 1 on a couple of levels and they also couldn’t have asked for a more dangerous opponent than Toronto in the first round.  Toronto has been terrible inconsistent due to a lot of injuries and some questionable coaching this year.  The Raptors seemed poised to win 50+ games going into this year and instead found a way to regress to just a .500 team.  The Raptors lost 16 games this year by double digit margins and suffered so many injuries to key players like Bosh, Ford, and Nesterovic.  They’re going to need to remember how to defend, re-learn how to play with each other and get back into a rhythm offensively.  The shooters of Toronto (Chuck Delfino, Jason Kapono, Andrea Bargnani) are going to have to make the Magic pay for leaving them open on the perimeter.  If the Raptors can get the game into the 110s then I think they have a good chance at upsetting the #3 seed. 

For Orlando, they match up really well against the Raptors when they’re being efficient in the offense.  Running the offensive sets with Hedo Turkoglu as the point forward makes it really hard for the opposing team to defend what Orlando does.  Orlando is then allowed to open up three-point shots and lobs inside to Dwight Howard.  Howard doesn’t have to carry this team offensively.  He just has to grab rebound, block shots, and move well without the ball to find the seams in the lane where he can score.  Stan Van Gundy wants to turn this into a slow down game and keep the score in the 90s.  But if Orlando is hitting their three-point shots and spreading the floor, they won’t mind turning the pace up a little bit. 

If T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon can take advantage of their match-up with Jameer Nelson, then the Raptors can pick apart the Orlando defense and make this a series. However, the Raps have been so inconsistent this year that I just don’t think they can put together 4 games out 7 that are good enough to win.  Orlando should be able to get this done early and rest up for the Pistons in round 2. 
Prediction: Magic in 5

Point Guard - Jameer Nelson vs. T.J. Ford
If you're wondering why the Magic might not win this series, it's because of the inconsistent play of Jameer. He's going to have to play like he did at St. Joe's to help his team. While T.J. has proven to not be the best point guard for this team, he still fills an important need. When he's focused, nobody can stay in front of him, which should create a lot of easy baskets for Toronto.
Advantage - Edge to Toronto
Shooting Guard - Maurice Evans vs. Anthony Parker
Defense, fastbreak points and rebounding will be the categories that Mo helps out with. He's going to have to frustrate Parker on defense in order to stay in the game. Anthony Parker might be the most underrated shooting guard today. He's a deadly three-point shooter that Orlando can not leave open in this series. If he's hitting, expect Toronto to move on.
Advantage - Edge to Toronto
Small Forward - Hedo Turkoglu vs. Jamario Moon
Hedo has grown so much this year in terms of maturity and basketball IQ that he's now the most dangerous person on this Magic team. He'll be the primary playmaker for Orlando. The 27-year old rookie will have his hands full with Hedo but he still has the ability to affect the game the way Shawn Marion did without scoring. If he can provide 10 points as well, he'll be dangerous.
Advantage - Edge to Orlando
Power Forward - Rashard Lewis vs. Chris Bosh
This is the reason the Magic gave him $118 million dollars. He's going to have to be a 25-point per game scorer and an effective rebounder to ensure Orlando moves on. Bosh has been great and average at times this season. For Toronto to play great and move on to the second round, he's going to have to be the All-Star he's been in the past. Anything other than 25-12 will disappoint.
Advantage - Edge to Toronto
Center- Dwight Howard vs. Rasho Nesterovic
This is the type of match-up that Dwight Howard has been dreaming about. He'll concede the outside jumper to Rasho and focus on dominating the paint. Rasho doesn't have to be great in this series to help Toronto. He just can't be bad. If he can give them 8 and 8 while knocking down the occasional jumper, he'll give the Raps much needed production from this position.
Advantage - Significant Edge to Orlando
Magic's Bench vs. Raptors' Bench
This Magic bench is anorexic in its depth. Any solid contribution from any of the players will be a blessing in disguise against the deep Toronto bench. Jose Calderon is one of the top 10 point guards in the NBA right now and he's coming off the bench. That's a luxury that no other team has in this league. For the Raptors, having Jose, Chuck Delfino, Bargnani and Kapono off the bench is also a rare luxury.
Advantage - Signifcant Edge to Toronto
Coaching - Stan Van Gundy vs. Sam Mitchell
Stan Van Gundy is a hell of a coach, despite the way the Miami Heat treated him. Stan will have this team active on defense and if he can get Dwight Howard involved all game, they should win. Sam has struggled at keeping this team motivated and focused all year long, but with all the talent the Raptors have, it shouldn't be too hard to get this team to compete. The Raptors will need to find a balance between point guards and that's for Sam to create.
Advantage - Edge to Orlando
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