Kansas v. North Carolina

How they got here:
The Kansas Jayhawks, and especially head coach Bill Self, were able to shed a tremendous amount of weight off of their collective shoulders when Davidson’s Jason Richard’s 25-foot desperation three-pointer hit the backboard about a foot wide of the rim as time expired in the final Elite 8 game of the tournament.

Self’s Jayhawks have failed to reach the Final Four in each of the last four seasons (including two first round losses and two losses in the Elite 8) despite having some of the more talented rosters in the nation.

This year, Kansas would not be challenged in the tournament until they faced a surging Davidson team lead by Stephen Curry. Kansas defeated each of their first three opponents, Portland State, UNLV and Villanova by at least 15 points and wasn’t challenged in the second half of any of those games.

During the regular season, Kansas won their first twenty before they dropped their first game to the Kansas State and freshman standout Michael Beasley. Kansas would lose two more games in their next six, forcing pundits across the nation to wonder if this Kansas team would suffer a similar fate previous Kansas teams have faced under Self.

Now, they’re in the Final Four for the first time since 2002 and have been playing their best basketball at the right time.

North Carolina has arguably been the tournament’s best team thus far. They scored an average of 110 points per game during the first weekend of the tournament blowing out both Mount Saint Mary’s and Arkansas by more than 30 points.

In the Sweet 16 they faced a Washington State squad that came into the game playing some of the best defense in the tournament. Ironically, North Carolina won that game with their defense holding Washington State to just 47 points. The Tar Heels then saw Louisville in the Elite 8. The Cardinals tied the game at 59 midway through the second half, but the Tar Heels’ Tyler Hansbrough scored seven straight points before leading his team to an eventual 10 point victory.

In the regular season, North Carolina got off to a start similar to Kansas’ wining their first 18 before losing in a two point loss to Maryland, a game that seemed they were never in until the last three minutes of the game. The Tar Heels would lose Ty Lawson three games later and lost to Duke just one game after that.

North Carolina would win six games without their point guard, the ACC regular season and tournament championships before reaching the Final Four.

What to watch for:
North Carolina’s head coach Roy Williams already has a few Final Fours under his belt (three with Kansas), and won a national championship with North Carolina in 2005, after leaving Kansas for his alma mater. Now, Bill Self is in a similar situation with the recent opening with the Oklahoma State job, his alma mater. The year before Roy Williams left Kansas the Jayhawks reached the Final Four, so Bill Self is going to have to work as hard keeping his kids focused on the game as he does coming up with a game plan to stop the Tar Heels.

This game is going to be all about tempo. North Carolina likes to run the floor and everyone on the roster can fill the lanes during the fast break. If Kansas wants to win this game, they’re going to have to take the air out of the ball and make it a half court game, something that is much easier said than done.

For the Tar Heels, they’re going to have to play honest on defense. Seven different Jayhawks have led the team in scoring this year and either Mario Chalmers or Brandon Rush will expose any Tar Heel that takes a chance or plays too far away on help side. Also, Ty Lawson has to be full speed if UNC wants to win this game. The point guard tweaked his ankle during the last play of the Louisville game, there haven’t been any reports that should make Tar Heel fans nervous about the ankle, either way, he needs to be 100 percent.

Kansas’ Darnell Jackson and Darrell Arthur are going to have to keep North Carolina’s bigs, most notably Hansbrough, off of the boards because misses will turn into layups for North Carolina. North Carolina is be best offensive rebounding team left in the tournament, but Kansas has the size and discipline to keep them off the boards.

This game will come down to tempo, the three-point shot, and rebounding. Who ever wins two of those three categories is going to win this game.
Prediction:
North Carolina wins by 4.

Memphis v. UCLA

How they got here:
Memphis, much like Kansas has spent the last few seasons on the outside looking in to the Final Four. Head Coach John Calipari has averaged 27 wins per season and has posted three consecutive 30-win seasons, something no coach has ever done, but will make his first trip to a Final Four with Memphis (Calipari coached UMass to the Final Four in 1996).

After falling in the Elite 8 two years in a row, Memphis, led by First Team All American Chris Douglas-Roberts, has finally broke through the round of eight. After an easy win over Texas-Arlington, Memphis had won a close three-point game over Mississippi State before blowing out Michigan State and Texas, two teams pundits across the nation picked to defeat the Tigers.

During the regular season, Memphis was undefeated 26 games after their first, and lost their only game this year to Tennessee, who happened to be number one at the time. Memphis ran through Conference USA in both the regular season and the conference tournament rarely being challenged and have found their way into the Final Four for the first time since 1985.

UCLA has a different story coming into this game. The Bruins are playing in their third consecutive Final Four and will be playing for their first championship since 1996, which would be their 12th overall.

The last two seasons UCLA lost in the last weekend of the tournament to Florida, who happened to end up winning it all both years. This year, there is no Florida in their way, and they have freshman phenom Kevin Love to help push them over the top.

Although UCLA hasn’t played great on the offensive end of the floor, they spent the first five halves of the tournament playing suffocating defense holding Mississippi Valley State and Texas to a combined 78 points. Things looked to be the same against Western Kentucky, holding them to just 20 first half points until the Hilltoppers exploded for 58 in the second half. UCLA finally got back on track defeating Xavier for the right to play in the Final Four.

During the regular season, the Bruins lost their first game only eight games into the season to Texas in Pauley Pavilion. UCLA would lost two more games (and win a couple more very questionable games) before wrapping up another Pac-10 regular season and tournament title.

What to watch for:
There are going to be two very intriguing match ups in this game, but how Memphis deals with back up point guard, Andre Allen, being suspended for one game for reportedly failing a NCAA drug test.

The first key match up is on the perimeter with Memphis’ Derrick Rose and UCLA’s Darren Collison. Rose has not seen a point guard as quick Collison all season and Collison has not seen a point guard with the size Rose has. Both of these guards have to play well for their respective teams to win. While it is very possible that neither point guard will guard the other (especially since UCLA’s Russell Westbrook is such a hound on the defensive end), the play of each point guard is going to be as important as anything. 

The other is a battle of the bigs. Love brings the physical play UCLA has lacked the past two seasons and Joey Dorsey of Memphis is just as physical. This battle will be all about keeping the other off of the glass. Dorsey is prone to foul trouble, so if Love is able to get Dorsey off of his feet early in the game, there could be trouble for Memphis. However, if Dorsey gets into a rhythm early in the game, he can come up with big plays late in the game.

Memphis is also a terrible free throw shooting team. If this game is close down the stretch, you better believe the pressure will be on the Tigers to hit their free-bees downt the stretch.

This game will really come down to the basics. Free throws, rebounds and turnovers. Again, whoever wins two of the three categories will win this game.
Prediction:
UCLA wins by 3.