East Region
1. North Carolina vs. 16. Mt. St. Mary’s
Zach Harper- I’m not going to even pretend like this may even be a game. North Carolina might be the most complete team in the tournament and could probably split a home and home against 3 or 4 teams in the NBA (and yes, they would ravage my Wolves because of their incompetent front office and owner). The Tar Heels aren’t about to become the first #1 seed in tournament history to lose to a #16.
Probability of upset: 0%
Prediction: UNC by 45
Phillip Barnett- There isn’t much that needs to be analyzed here. Expect a whole lot of Tyler Hansbrough in the paint and a whole lot of Carolina blue in the stands. At least the loser of this game will have more tourney wins than any other 16 seed. Who doesn’t love play in games?
Probability of upset: 0%
Prediction: UNC by 4,200
8. Indiana vs. 9. Arkansas
Zach Harper- Ever since Kelvin Sampson couldn’t decide which recruits should be in his Fave Five and the NCAA decided for him (it should be none by the way), the Hoosiers have been a mess on the court. They gave a very spirited effort the first game without KS but just couldn’t find the leadership from the sideline that they desperately need.
However, they still have Eric Gordon who is the second best freshman in the country in my opinion. Arkansas’ Patrick Beverley will be the key to the Razorbacks winning this game. If he gets hot, he can carry this team through a half of basketball and match Eric Gordon play for play. But I don’t see Arkansas containing DJ White at all.
Probability of upset: 45%
Prediction: Indiana by 5
Phillip Barnett- Indiana is coming into the tournament just 3-3 since Kelvin Sampson was asked to leave the Hoosier’s bench and Arkansas is wondering how in the hell they lost to Georgia in the SEC final. Sonny Weems, the Razorbacks leading scorer, is going to have to be a lot more productive than he was in their last five games (just 7.8ppg) if Arkansas is to have any shot at winning this game
Eric Gordon and D.J. White should prove to be too much for an over achieving Arkansas team, even if they’re still bothered by that last second loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big 10 Tournament
Probability of upset: 35%
Prediction: Indiana by 9
5. Notre Dame vs. 12. George Mason
Zach Harper- Is George Mason this year’s George Mason? The Cinderella surprise of the 2006 NCAA tournament will face a very good and underrated Notre Dame basketball team. The Irish haven’t been considered a serious threat since the days of Chris Thomas but have one of the best scorers in the country with Luke Harangody. Point guard Tory Jackson makes this team go on offense. His averages of 8.1 points, 6.1 assists and 5 rebounds per game show his versatility and impact and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled an Ice Cube, messed around, and dropped a triple-double.
Probability of upset: 25%
Prediction: Notre Dame by 12
Phillip Barnett- If you remember the end of Notre Dame’s 2007 season, you know that they finished the season with two heartbreaking losses. A two point loss to eventual Big East Tournament Champions, Georgetown, then a first round NCAA Tournament loss to Winthrop. This season, they’ll be playing the 2006 version of Cinderella, George Mason, who’ll be looking to upset whoever steps on the floor with them.
The Fighting Irish have the Big East player of the year in Luke Harangody. The sophomore has nearly doubled his scoring average from a year ago and should lead this team past George Mason just as he’s lead them to a tie for second place in the Big East this season.
Probability of upset: 15%
Prediction: Notre Dame by 15
4. Washington State vs. 13. Winthrop
Zach Harper- Washington State seniors, Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low, are extremely hard to handle in the backcourt and have combined to score 26.2 of the Cougars’ 67.1 points per game this season. The thing that worries me about this team WSU team is the fact that they don’t have great interior defense and don’t block a lot of shots (2.9). But Aron Baynes won’t be facing a very big Winthrop team and should be able to control the paint on offense.
This Winthrop team isn’t very big and only has 2 guys at 6’8” or taller but that won’t matter if Michael Jenkins is on his game. Jenkins was a big part of the Eagles’ run through the tourney last season. His ability to get into the paint and create havoc for a weak WSU interior defense will be the key for Winthrop pulling off the upset.
Probability of upset: 18%
Prediction: Washington State by 8
Phillip Barnett- As mentioned earlier, Winthrop earned the schools first victory in the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 65. This year’s Winthrop team has dedicated it’s season to the memory of backup point guard DeAndre Adams who died in a car accident only a month after last years tournament. They’ve beaten two ACC schools in the same season in the first time in the school’s history (Miami and Georgia Tech) and finished tied atop the Big South.
However, the Golden Eagles face a very good Washington State team lead by point guard Derek Lowe who is shooting nearly 40% from behind the three point arch. Lowe combined with Kyle Weaver, Robbie Cowgill, and Aron Baynes should be too much for Winthrop.
Probability of upset: 11 ½%
Prediction: Washington State by 19
6. Oklahoma vs. 11. St. Joseph’s
Zach Harper- Freshman standout, Blake Griffin, has put his goal of looking like R&B singer, Jon B, on hold for now and flat out balled for the Sooner this season. He’s a local beast at 6’10” and 243 pounds and used that size to average 15 points and 9.4 rebounds this season. Griffin and his brother, Taylor Griffin, have joined Longar Longar to form a formidable front line that is tough to outmuscle inside.
One month ago, St. Joe’s was looking like a bubble team, whose post-season hopes were about to burst. But the big man tandem of Pat Calathes and Ahmad Nivins would have none of it and the Hawks ended up playing there way into the tournament. Rob Ferguson and Calathes will need to find a way to get hot from outside and take on a battered and injured Sooners’ team.
Probability of upset: 40%
Prediction: Oklahoma by 2
Phillip Barnett- The health of the Sooners is going to play a major role in the outcome of this game. The team’s leader, Blake Griffin, has been battling knee injuries all season but has only sat out one game and center Longar Longar has been playing despite a fractured bone above his ankle. St. Joseph’s is coming into this game with a win over Xavier, who some are predicting to make it as far as the Elite 8, in their regular season finale and a loss to Temple in the first round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
The Hawks team that shows up will play as big a role in this game as the Oklahoma injuries. I like the guard play of Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson, both of whom shoot over 40% from three-point land to get it done against Oklahoma.
Probability of upset: 66.6%
Prediction: St. Joseph’s by 4
3. Louisville vs. 14. Boise State
Zach Harper- The only way I see Boise State winning this game is if they manage to find themselves down 1 and honor their football team and Terrence Stansbury by running a Statue of Liberty play to pull off the upset. I’m willing to consider the possibility just for the pure comedic value of it. But Edgar Sosa will not let this Louisville team take care of a #14 seed in this tournament.
Probability of upset: 5%
Prediction: Louisville by 19
Phillip Barnett- I’ve had a team crush on Louisville since the return of David Padgett, and it only worsened when Rick Patino wore that white on white pimp suit to their game against Kentucky. Boise State is coming into the tournament as hot as any team in the country right now, with WAC regular season and tournament championships. However, it all comes to an end against Louisville.
Probability of upset: 8%
Prediction: Louisville by 16
7. Butler vs. 10. South Alabama
Zach Harper- One of the reasons I ended up with the ESPN College Gameplan package from DirectTV this season was because of South Alabama’s Demetric Bennett. He’s an extremely explosive guard that dropped 20 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field. He’s the type of player that could dominate and cause of a few upsets in the tournament this month.
Butler’s A.J. Graves and Mike Green have been a tough combo to guard this season and is the main reason why Butler has had so much success over their past 4 years. I’d love to see Butler march on through a very spirited tournament run but I’ve got South Alabama in my office pool.
Probability of upset: 51%
Prediction: South Alabama by 4
Phillip Barnett- South Alabama has competed well all season. They have wins over Mississippi State and WCC Champions San Diego. They had one stretch of the season where they won 13 straight and are the Sun Belt regular season champions. Despite not winning the conference tourney, the Cougars were able to earn an at large bid making this the first time in 14 years that the Sun Belt conference had two teams in the tournament.
Butler features two seniors in the back court. A.J. Graves and Mike Green have been on a tear this season. Both Green and Graves have exploded for well over 20 points several times this season and are coming into the NCAAs winning 13 of their last 14 contests.
Probability of upset: 40%
Prediction: Butler by 6
2. Tennessee vs. 15. American University
Zach Harper- Bruce Pearl isn’t going to allow his team to lose to the alma mater of David Aldridge and John Feinstein. If Chris Lofton and the 22 Vols’ players with the last name Smith aren’t getting the job done, coach Pearl will blind the other team with his bright orange blazer.
Probability of upset: -10%
Prediction: Tennessee by 43
Phillip Barnett- I had to look up the location of American University because it’s the only school in this years tournament that I did not know the location of. Because of this, I will not break down the game, but simply tell you that Tennessee will win, by a lot, and Chris Lofton will play about 25 minutes. Oh, and expect to see a whole lot of that Bruce Pearl smile.
Probability of upset: 0.0003%
Prediction: Tennessee by 486