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Possible Number One Seeds

Saturday, February 16, 2008

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With five weeks before Selection Sunday, it is about time to take a look at the possible number one seeds.  Memphis, Duke, Kansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and UCLA are the teams who have a legit shot at getting the spots. You must assume that Memphis will get a top seed barring a meltdown in Conference USA play. The winner of the ACC(Duke is ahead by two games) will likely get another. That cleaves four teams for two spots. Yet, in the NCAA, you can never assume anything. So let's look at all of the teams, starting with Memphis.

Memphis (23-0, 9-0)- On the season, Memphis has shown the most talent out of anyone in the nation. Their only struggle is at the free throw line, where they are 58% for the season. That could hurt them in close games, if they have any. The only real scare for Memphis is Tennessee who only has two losses. If this team stays healthy and can start hitting the free throws, they are easily the best in the nation. Does the weak level of the C-USA  get Memphis a number one overall seed even if they lose to Tennessee? After all, Kansas and Duke are also one loss teams who play in a much stronger conference.

The Tigers have not showed they can play on the road against power teams. All of their big games were at home. Will this be a concern for hem come tournament time? I think not. Road wins are big, yes. In their game against Georgetown they beat them by eighteen. Home or Away, they will coninue to win.
Prediction- The Vols lose in Memphis, Memphis goes undefeated.

Duke (21-1, 9-0)- After beating North Carolina in Chapel Hill last week, can Duke run the table in the ACC? After all, their only close game they have played all season was a loss to Pittsburgh when the Panthers were ranked #7. Duke lost 65-64 in OT. All of their wins have come by double digits except for Davidson(6 Points) and Marquette(4 Points). Coach K is still the best Coach in the nation. This Duke team not young by any standards and really want to win the ACC after finishing 7th last year and getting a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament and losing in the first round.

This team is experienced enough to win the National Title. Coach K wants another one. Demarcus Nelson and Greg Paulus have to show leadership. After all, they were taught well by former Duke stars J.J. Reddick and Shelden Williams. Now is their time to shine.
Prediction- Duke loses to North Carolina at Cameron, yet they still get the third overall seed.

Kansas(23-1, 8-1)- This team is going to have the toughest road to a #1 seed. They still have to play at Texas, vs. Kansas State, and  at College Station. If they can win two of those three, they will be a #1 seed. But can they? That is the question. After all Texas has already beaten Tennessee and UCLA, and Kansas already lost to Michael Beasley and Kansas State at Phog Allen fieldhouse.

They are inconsistent on offense as well. They are going to have trouble competing against the likes of Memphis, Tennessee, UCLA, North Carolina, and Duke if they finish with three losses in conference and fail to win the Big Twelve tournament? They would be in big trouble.
Prediction- Kansas stumbles against Texas and Kansas State, yet they beat Texas A&M for a #2 seed. 

Tennessee( 21-2, 8-1)-
Tennessee is playing in the weakest power conference and have a loss to Kentucky, in Rupp. They did, however, torture Vanderbilt and Florida. They could run the table in the SEC. Does that get them the go ahead for a #1 seed? They still have to play Florida and Vanderbilt again, as well as Kentucky. Will Chris Lofton step up?

Lofton will have to be the big man. He is possibly the greatest three point shooter in college, but can someone help him? Will Wayne Chism help out? What about Tyler Smith? These three are the big scorers.
Prediction- The Vols win out except for as loss to Memphis, and earn the second overall seed.

North Carolina (22-2,7-2)- North Carolina showed themselves as a veteran team against Clemson by coming back from double digits without PG Ty Lawson. Tyler Hansborough is the guy who they want in the clutch. He has produced. In the second overtime, North Carolina held the Tigers to just three points. The best question might be, can this team stay healthy? They have had injuries all season, yet they have found a way to win.

Their luck will run out. Sure, they will be Duke at Cameron. What happens if they lose in the first round of the ACC tournament? That puts them in a hole. They are really missing Lawson's speed as well. Let's hope, for North Carolina's sake, he returns soon.
Prediction- North Carolina finishes second in the ACC and gets a #2 seed.

UCLA(21-3,9-2)- The Bruins are the only three loss team in contention for a #1 seed. Freshman sensation Kevin Love has carried this team on his back all season. Can he continue to do it? This team does play in one of the tough conferences and cannot seem to get a #1 seed. Can they this year? If they can defeat Stanford and win the PAC 10, they will.

Injuries are also a concern. They are not very deep at guard. What if Derrick Collison goes out in the first round? That would hurt UCLA against tougher competition.
Prediction- UCLA drops Stanford, Love wins Freshman of the year, and UCLA gets the fourth #1 seed.

The Sleeper that might ruin it all

Texas (20-4, 7-2)- Wow. After a win against Kansas on monday night, does that put Texas in the position for contentding for a 31 seed? Time will tell on that one. Seriously though, it might be possible. After all, they have defeated Tennesse, UCLA, and Kansas. Their guard play is spectacular. These guys are better than Kansas.

However, they need a big man. Their leading big man in points is Connor Atchley. The top three scorers are all guards, in Damion James, D.J. Augustin, as well as A.J. Abrams. Those three are averaging nearly fifty a game, while Atchley is averaging just ten.
Prediction: They win out to earn themselves a #2 seed, and possibly a shot at the Final four.

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