1. Chicago Bulls - Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas State |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PF |
G, G/F |
Over the Cap w/ RFA |
Gordon (R), Deng (R), Duhon |
| Why It Works - The Bulls desperately need some scoring in the post and Beasley gives them the best option. They can't get this type of scorer in free agency and with a lot of money wrapped up in the guard position (if Ben Gordon re-signs), they won't have much room for Rose right now. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Derrick Rose is the best player in this draft and with Kirk Hinrich coming off the worst season of his career, there are plenty of doubts at the guard position in Chicago. Taking Rose, the local product, would help re-energize the team that lost Jay Williams years ago. | |||
2. Miami Heat - Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, C, G |
None. They're awful |
$2 million under w/o RFA |
J. Williams, R. Davis, Mourning |
| Why It Works - They badly need a point guard and putting Rose alongside Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion would give them one of the best 1, 2, 3 combos in the game. Rose gives them the type of player that allows them to run and still play solid defense in the backcourt. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - There really aren't many negatives to this pick. If Rose can't learn how to shoot from outside and he doesn't pass enough to share the ball, it could cause problems with someone like Marion. | |||
3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, C, G/F |
PF, SG |
No Cap Room |
Telfair (R), Doleac, Snyder (R) |
| Why It Works - Sebastian Telfair is a nice player but this team needs a big, franchise point guard to go alongside Randy Foye in the backcourt. Bayless is a couple years away from being able to run a team, but so is the Timberwolves front office. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Bayless may end up being too much of a scoring point guard than people anticipate. His ability to get to the basket is much better than his ability to distribute the ball. Him and Foye in the backcourt won't mesh that way. | |||
4. Seattle Supersonics - Brook Lopez, C, Stanford |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, C, SG |
F, SF |
$5 million under |
Wilkins (PO), Swift (R), Elson, Gelabale |
| Why It Works - Yes, they grab a center every year. But they grab a bad center too. I'm not high on Brook Lopez, but I think he can be a Zyndrunas Ilgauskas type of player alongside Durant and Green. This allows them to cut ties with Swift, bench Petro and deal Chris Wilcox. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Lopez may end up being a much better college center than pro. He's slow offensively and not a great defender. If he can't create his own shot in the post, he's useless. | |||
5. Memphis Grizzlies - DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
SG, PF, C |
SF, PG |
$12 million under |
Kwame Brown, Juan Carlos Navarro |
| Why It Works - This seems like a no-brainer for Memphis. Jordan has the chance to be a really good center in this league and would be a nice compliment inside to Conley and Gay on the perimeter. Jordan's potential is something Memphis would want to wait for. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - What if Jordan is just another stiff? They pass up on a potentially dynamic scorer like Mayo and they could struggle to compete again next year in the Western Conference. Jordan doesn't necessarily have a great defensive desire and they need a complete package here. | |||
6. New York Knicks - O.J. Mayo, SG, USC |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PF, C, PG |
SF, SG |
Way the F Over |
Fred Jones, Dan Dickau, R. Morris |
| Why It Works - Say what you want about O.J. Mayo but he can score and he can run. Those two things help in Mike D'Antoni's system and if O.J. falls to New York here at #6, they will gladly take him as they rebuild into a winner. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - O.J. Mayo already comes in with baggage and that can be amplified and built upon in a big media market like New York. Someone like Danillo Gallinari or Russell Westbrook may be a better fit too. | |||
7. Los Angeles Clippers - Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG, SF |
PF, C |
$3 million under w/ RFA |
E. Brand (PO), Maggette (PO), Livingston (R) |
| Why It Works - Russell Westbrook looks like the obvious pick here, but Gordon is the better pick. The Clippers need a scoring guard or a pure point guard. Gordon is a better scorer and Westbrook is more of a combo guard. Gordon will fill a need and they can go get a point guard in free agency. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Westbrook may be good enough to figure out the NBA point guard position. If Eric Gordon can't get his shot off because he's undersized at the 2, that's a problem. | |||
8. Milwaukee Bucks - Danillo Gallinari, SF, Italy |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PF, PG |
SG, G/F |
No cap room |
Voskuhl, M. Ruffin, R. Ivey, A. Storey, D. Noel |
| Why It Works - Gallinari won't contribute right away but that's okay because the Bucks won't compete next season. But Gallinari potentially gives Bucks a very versatile and international front court that could end up giving the league fits. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Dani might not be a really good playmaker in the NBA and if he isn't quick enough to do the type of things that make him valuable then he's a bust of a lottery pick. | |||
9. Charlotte Bobcats - Kevin Love, PF, UCLA |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, PF, SG |
C, SF |
$13 million under w/ RFA |
Okafor (R), D. Anderson, McInnis, Boykins |
| Why It Works - Love is the best player in the draft in terms of all-around ability. His passing ability, rebounding and low post scoring are all things that the Bobs need and all things that Larry Brown will love to utilize. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - What if he's not athletic and quick enough to be effective in this league? Is he worth having if the only thing he can do well is pass? | |||
10. New Jersey Nets - Russell Westbrook, G, UCLA |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PF, SG |
SF, PG |
No Cap Room |
Swift (PO), Magloire, Nachbar, Diop, Krstic (R) |
| Why It Works - Westbrook teamed with Devin Harris will wreak havoc on the backcourts of the NBA. Westbrook can get out in the open court, play great defense, and energize a crowd. He'd be an instant fan favorite and a reason to ship Vince Carter out. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Westbrook may prove to be too small to be alongside Devin Harris. Plus, if he can't be a consistent outside shooter, then he's very easy to guard. NBA defenses eat guys up like that. Ask Dajuan Wagner. | |||
11. Indiana Pacers - D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
SG, PG, C |
SF, PF |
No Cap Room |
Foster (PO), Harrison (R), Rush, Greene |
| Why It Works - The Pacers are desperate for a point guard and Augustin is easily the best pure point guard in the draft. He would be able to excel in Jim O'Brien's system and has a veteran presence in running an offense. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - This is actually a perfect fit for Indiana. If D.J. falls to 11, it's a no-brainer. This will work no matter what. | |||
12. Sacramento Kings - Anthony Randolph, PF, LSU |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, PF |
SF, C, SG |
No Cap Room |
Artest (PO), Lue, Wright, A. Johnson, Udrih |
| Why It Works - Randolph is raw but he's too good of a prospect to pass up on. With his length and athletic ability, he'll be able to control the glass and block shots to perfectly compliment Brad Miller and Spencer Hawes. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - If Randolph can't develop an offensive game, then why not just go sign Stromile Swift? | |||
13. Portland Trailblazers - Courtney Lee, SG, Western Kentucky |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
SG, SF |
PG, PF, C |
No Cap Room |
James Jones (PO), Von Wafer |
| Why It Works - You're going to have to trust me here because nobody is talking about this guy. Nobody heard of Petteri Koponen last year and I was telling you he'd go first round. Courtney Lee is the Kevin Martin of this draft. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - If Lee isn't big enough to get his jumper off while dribbling then it's going to be pretty easy to guard him in this league. | |||
14. Golden State Warriors - Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, C, SG, PF |
SF |
$8 million with RFA |
Pietrus, Barnes, Biedrins (R), O'Bryant, Ellis, Croshere, Azuibuike, Davis (PO) |
| Why It Works - It's a steal here because Arthur has top-10 talent for sure. Arthur would give the Warriors a big man that runs the floor, bangs inside and can knock down a jumper. He's a perfect fit for their system. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Arthur's work ethic and desire have been huge questions and he may need the right veterans around him to flourish. Warriors don't have those guys. | |||
15. Phoenix Suns (via Atlanta) - Donte Greene, SF, Syracuse |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SF, PF/C |
SG |
No Cap Room |
Grant Hill (PO), Piatkowski, Skinner, Giricek |
| Why It Works - Donte Greene won't replace Shawn Marion, but it's not a bad start. He's so athletic and could be a great outside shooter so he'd fit well with the Suns in both the halfcourt and fullcourt games. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Donte Greene is more of an athlete right now than a ball player and if he doesn't have the desire to develop, he won't get better than he is now. | |||
16. Philadelphia 76ers - Chase Budinger, SG, Arizona |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG |
F, PF, C |
$20 million under w/ RFA |
Iguodala (R), L. Williams, Ollie, Randolph |
| Why It Works - Putting Chase alongside Iggy and Andre Miller gives the Sixers a ridiculously athletic wing combo. Budinger's ability to shoot the ball from anywhere also gives the Sixers something they didn't have last season. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Chase has been known to shy away from contact and not capitalize on his athleticism. If he acts like that in the NBA, he'll be eaten alive. | |||
17. Toronto Raptors - Marreese Speights, C, Florida |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PG |
SF, SG, PF |
No Cap Room |
Calderon, Brezec, Delfino (R) |
| Why It Works - He's a big, athletic guy that will be a great compliment to Chris Bosh. Speights reminds a lot of people of Elton Brand and if he can rebound and play defense like Elton, then Bosh will be free to create on his own. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Speights is so raw and has such little experience that he could end up never getting better than he is now. It's not as bad as drafting Rafael Araujo in the top-8 but it's close. | |||
18. Washington Wizards - JaVale McGee, C, Nevada |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, PF, C |
SF, SG |
$5 million under w/o PO |
Jamison, Arenas (PO), Mason |
| Why It Works - Wizards need to get serious about an inside presence and McGee has the offensive tools to be that guy. Brendan Haywood can only get you so far and with JaVale's ability to score in the post, it would open things up in the halfcourt for the Wiz. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - McGee may not be athletic enough in an open court style of play. Plus, if he's playing with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler then how many shots can he possibly get? | |||
19. Cleveland Cavaliers - Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG, PF |
SF, C |
No Cap Room |
Devin Brown, Daniel Gibson |
| Why It Works - LeBron needs a shooting guard that can knock down outside jumpers and still play great defense. Brandon Rush is that type of player. He should be a great compliment to what Cleveland does -- please LeBron. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Brandon Rush tore his ACL a year ago and that could end up being a chronic knee injury that never goes away. If he's bothered by it or tears it again, he'll be out of the league in 5 years. | |||
20. Denver Nuggets - Ty Lawson, PG, UNC |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG |
SF, PF, C |
No Cap Room |
E. Najera, J.R. Smith (R), A. Carter, Y. Diawara |
| Why It Works - Nuggets have no point guard and Lawson would thrive in the open court style of George Karl. Lawson's ability to wreak havoc in the open court and set up other players will be great for Carmelo (assuming he's still there) and Iverson. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Lawson is pretty small and may not be able to take the pounding of the NBA game. If he can't get his shot off against taller point guards, then he's useless. | |||
21. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas) - Joe Alexander, F, West Virginia |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PF, SG |
SF, PG |
No Cap Room |
Swift (PO), Magloire, Nachbar, Diop, Krstic (R) |
| Why It Works - He's a sweet shooting forward that can play both the 3 and 4 and would be another great weapon in the halfcourt. He gives the Nets many different ways to score and his ability to score in the post is something they're missing. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Joe Alexander may be the next Austin Croshere and that's not someone you take in the first round. If he can't get his shot off in the NBA, then he isn't a versatile and deadly. | |||
22. Orlando Magic - Kostas Koufos, C, Ohio State |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, PF, SG, PG |
SF |
$1 million under |
Carlos Arroyo, Garrity, Dooling, Evans |
| Why It Works - Being able to put a big guy like this next to Dwight Howard would be a great combination. Koufos plays well on the perimeter and could give a good high-low big man game. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Koufos may not end up being a good NBA big man and if that's the case then it's yet another wasted first round pick by Otis Smith and the Magic. | |||
23. Utah Jazz - Nicolas Batum, SF, France |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, SG, PG |
SF, PF |
No Cap Room |
C.J. Miles |
| Why It Works - Kirilenko will be gone as soon as someone is willing to take his contract and Batum would be a great replacement for him. They can stash Batum in Europe for a couple of years and by then he'll be a seasoned veteran that can play an all around offensive game better than Kirilenko. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Batum is French and typically their players haven't had the best drive (Diaw) or the best basketball IQ (Pietrus) other than Tony Parker. Batum may be another good wing player in Europe that can't hack it in the NBA. | |||
24. Seattle Supersonics (via Phoenix) - Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, C, SG |
F, SF |
$5 million under |
Wilkins (PO), Swift (R), Elson, Gelabale |
| Why It Works - While this isn't the franchise point guard of the future, Mario Chalmers is good enough to help them transition into being a good team again. He's a complete point guard and will keep offenses honest with his outside shooting. Durant and Green would benefit from him. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Chalmers isn't going to be an All-Star point guard and they might be better off getting a Euro point guard that they can groom overseas for a couple of years. | |||
25. Houston Rockets - Robin Lopez, C, Stanford |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PF, C, SF |
SG, PG |
No Cap Room |
Chuck Hayes, Mutombo, G. Green |
| Why It Works - Yao goes out once a year like Zyndrunas Ilgauskas used to. So a defensive minded center under the age of 300 would be good for the Rockets. Lopez is capable of developing an offensive game and is sound defensively. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - They need some scoring down low when Yao is gone. Lopez doesn't provide that right now and there are other power forwards that could provide that. | |||
26. San Antonio Spurs - Ante Tomic, C, Croatia |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG, SF |
C, PF |
No Cap Room |
K. Thomas, Horry, Finley, Stoudamire |
| Why It Works - Despite being in a great cap situation (they're barely at the cap), the Spurs usually grab first round picks that they can season in Europe before bringing them to the NBA. They could do the same with Tomic who would be a great compliment to Tim Duncan in a couple of years. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - They already have Tiago Splitter waiting in the wings and could use some more scoring from the wing or a backup point guard. | |||
27. New Orleans Hornets - Bill Walker, SF, Memphis |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG, C |
SF, PF |
No Cap Room |
Bonzi Wells, Pargo (PO), Ely |
| Why It Works - This would be an absolute steal if New Orleans can land him here. Walker used to be a top-5 prospect before blowing out his knee and gaining a bunch of weight. He has superb athleticism and would be great running the floor with Chris Paul. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - He's still out of shape despite hurting his knee nearly 2 years ago. His drive and determination are questionable and the Hornets want better chemistry guys. | |||
28. Memphis Grizzlies (via Lakers) - J.J. Hickson, PF, NC State |
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Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
SG, PF, C |
SF, PG |
$12 million under |
Kwame Brown, Juan Carlos Navarro |
| Why It Works - In this draft situation, they've already selected DeAndre Jordan and adding J.J. Hickson with him would give them a very promising frontcourt with two very athletic big men. Hickson could develop into a really good offensive player with Jordan and Rudy Gay. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Hickson is pretty raw offensively and they might be better off trying to grab a shooter with this pick. | |||
29. Detroit Pistons - Serge Ibaka, PF, Congo |
|||
Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
C, SF |
PF, PG, SG |
No Cap Room |
Dixon, Hunter, Herrmann, Ratliff |
| Why It Works - Even though the Pistons still have Maxiell and Amir Johnson, grabbing Serge Ibaka would be a great move for Joe Dumars. Ibaka is the type of player that can be an All-Star power forward some day. He's only 18 (allegedly) and he'll be ready when Rasheed Wallace is ready to go. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - This guy has a little bit more experience than I do and so he's going to be a big project. You have to pray he isn't like Johan Petro. | |||
30. Boston Celtics - John Riek, C, Prep School |
|||
Team Needs |
Team Surplus |
Cap Situation |
Key Free Agents |
PG, SG, C |
PF, SF |
No Cap Room |
Posey (PO), T. Allen (R), Pollard, P.J. Brown, Cassell |
| Why It Works - This is a bit of a stretch here but the Celtics are in no man's land with their franchise. There isn't anybody here that helps them now so Riek becomes their next project and he gets to learn from KG over the next 4 years. He could end up being another Dikembe Mutombo. | |||
| Why It Won't Work - Riek's biggest experience is the equivalent of rec league games and he may end up being a complete waste of a pick. This is a big risk but it could reap great rewards. | |||