Dictating Destinies
By Cory Elfrink - Email Cory

For much of the off-season we have heard off-and-on rumors regarding Sacramento’s two biggest stars:  Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.  Both players have two more years left on their deals but Bibby’s is almost twice as expensive.  The PG gets and average of $14 million and the NBA Bad Boy scores just $8.1 million.  Both players are 29 and are above average starters in the West.

Sacramento Kings



Photos Courtesy of usatoday.com and idolator.com, respectively.

Why would Sacto want to move these two?  It’s understandable that GM Geoff Petrie and the owners Maloof have come to accept that they will not make the playoffs next year and even if they did, they would never see the second round.  Brad Miller’s sudden drop-off was a big reason they missed the postseason by nine games last year and this off-season has not seen any major upgrades. 

What has this off-season brought to Sacramento?  They plucked big man Spencer Hawes out of Washington with the 10th pick of the draft.  Hawes, along with Yi Jianlian, was one of the only certified “projects” in the lottery but the Kings went with the 19 year-old anyhow.  Could this could be a signal of the organization’s commitment to rebuild? 

Sacramento has also welcomed 31 year-old journeyman Mikki Moore to bring some tenacity to their frontline for the price of $18 million over three years.  Moore joins veterans Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim at the position meaning the Maloof brothers are shelling out over $60 million to their power forward trio over the next three years despite hosting a below standards Western Conference rotation.

The Vegas Summer League squad has shown a lot of faith in Hawes as he is taking more shots than anyone.  Francisco Garcia stood out among the wanna-bes and restricted free-agent center Justin Williams looks to have certified an invitation back to training camp.

Artest’s name has been rumored in deals with Miami, Los Angeles and New York but he issued a statement earlier saying he wants to stay with the Kings.  Buyers beware.  Aside from the mental baggage of Artest, it’s also conceivable that he will exercise his player option at the end of this year and seek a deal worth $10 - $12 million per year next summer.  On Saturday, his trade value lessened further after being handed yet another suspension, this one for seven games, from league offices.  This latest suspension came after a domestic incident.

Mike Bibby’s name has been hot in rumors sending him to Cleveland for Drew Gooden.  As I have already mentioned, the Kings are already overstocked at power forward and I do not see this happening.  However, there are a good amount of teams looking for an upgrade at point guard so Bibby’s market remains stable.

Boston Celtics

On draft night, GM Danny Ainge sent a message to the rest of the Eastern Conference.  By moving bringing in six-time All-Star Ray Allen and NBA-ready Glen Davis for Wally Szczerbiak, rookie Jeff Green, and Delonte West, Ainge seems to think that the time is now for the Celtics. 

They have a good playoff-caliber nucleus of Allen, Paul Pierce and the emerging Al Jefferson but the rest of the roster remains young and mostly unproven.  No position is that more obvious than at point guard where their current “best” option appears to be second-year man, Rajon Rondo who has maintained his inconsistencies in the summer league.  Sebastian Telfair is the only other point guard on the roster.  Bassy was the center of team news earlier this summer when Danny Ainge verbally “cut” one-time prodigy despite the fact that all NBA contracts are guaranteed.  He did good by showing up in Vegas for the Summer League, and has been seen watching the Celtics games next to Ainge and head coach Doc Rivers.  Still, one would have to think Ainge is eager to package him in a deal before training camp.

Boston still has plenty of very valuable trade pieces.  Theo Ratliffs $11+ million contract is in its final year and is regarded as one of the best expiring contracts currently available.  They may decided to wait it out, but there’s no telling how many more strong years Pierce and Allen have left.  I think they have to move it now.  They also have young prospects that averaged double figures last year in SF Gerald Green, SG Tony Allen, and PF Ryan Gomes.  Each of these young Celtics would be attractive to a rebuilding team.

Their summer league squad has been led by Glen Davis but also boasts four other players likely to make the roster:  the aforementioned Rondo, Gerald Green, Leon Powe, and Allan Ray.  Rookie PG Gabe Pruitt looks destined for a year in the D-League unless the C’s desperately still need depth at PG when the season tips off.

THE TRADE THAT SHOULD HAPPEN

With Boston committed to winning now, and the Kings reluctantly rebuilding, the two teams should swap some parts.

Boston gets Mike Bibby and Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Sacto gets Theo Ratliff, Tony Allen, and Sebastian Telfair

Why would Sacramento do such a thing?  For starters, Sacto gets $16 million that will all come off the books next year, while neither Bibby nor Abdur-Rahim would give them that luxury.  Also, Abdur-Rahim is signed for 3 more years and he just had another surgery on the right knee that was failing physicals 2 years ago in New Jersey.  With the addition of Mikki Moore, new coach Reggie Theus does not have the minutes for Shareef.

By ridding themselves of Bibby and Abdur-Rahim for expiring contracts they would figure to be their way to 20-25 wins this season thus getting into the top five of a potentially great draft next summer.  New coach Reggie Theus could focus on developing long term salaried guys like Kevin Martin, John Salmons, Hawes, Thomas and Moore this season without the pressure of the playoffs or winning at all.  With Bibby and Shareef they can barely expect to win 35 and end up with another lower lottery selection.  Without a change, the Kings are on pace for another mediocre lottery pick in the 10-14 range.  It's not exactly trying to lose games if your roster is just less talented. This scenario gives Petrie and Theus time to get to know what he’s working with and what holes will need filled next summer.

You may have noticed all the reasons for Geoff Petrie to do this have had nothing to do with the actual incoming players themselves.  While that is partially true, it’s not as if Allen and Telfair are complete bums.

TONY ALLEN

YR	TM	G	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	STL	BLK	TO	OFF	DEF	TOT	AST	PTS
04-05	Bos	77	16.4	.475	.387	.737	1.0	0.3	1.0	1.1	1.8	2.9	0.8	6.4
05-06	Bos	51	19.2	.471	.324	.746	1.0	0.4	1.3	0.6	1.6	2.1	1.3	7.2
06-07	Bos	33	24.5	.514	.242	.784	1.5	0.4	2.3	1.1	2.7	3.8	1.7	11.5

SEBASTIAN TELFAIR

YR	TM	G	MIN	FG%	3P%	FT%	STL	BLK	TO	OFF	DEF	TOT	AST	PTS
04-05	Por	68	19.6	.393	.246	.789	0.5	0.1	1.8	0.2	1.4	1.5	3.3	6.8
05-06	Por	68	24.2	.394	.352	.743	1.0	0.1	1.7	0.3	1.5	1.8	3.6	9.5
06-07	Bos	78	20.3	.371	.289	.818	0.6	0.1	1.3	0.2	1.2	1.4	2.8	6.1

They have been contributors in each of their first three years and are just 25 and 22, respectively.  Although Allen will have to battle Kevin Martin for shots and minutes, Telfair will have his best opportunity to fulfill his lauded potential and may be a player for the Kings to hold onto.

The bottom-line is that Sacramento would likely be in a phenomenal drafting spot, get their youth plenty of minutes and potentially be $20 million under the cap during next summer’s loaded free agent class.  For the cost of one season, Sacramento could expedite their needed rebuilding and be locked and ready for the playoffs for the 2008-2009 campaign.

A RETURN TO GLORY


Photos courtesy of sportsillustrated.com, msnbc.com, and orlandosentinel.com, respectively

Meanwhile, this should be a no-brainer for Danny Ainge.  Boston has to go all in right now.  A core of Mike Bibby, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Al Jefferson, would certainly contend for Eastern Conference crowns for a couple years until Bibby's contract is up.  By that point, Rajon Rondo or Gabe Pruitt should be ready to step into the starter’s role. 

The ring-less stars would have a strong supporting cast with Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Kendrick Perkins, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Glen Davis, Leon Powe and Allan Ray.  Show me an Eastern Conference team boasting 4 stars and that goes eleven deep and I’ll show them the NBA Finals.

Also, Bibby’s contract is conveniently up just when Al Jefferson will be looking for a healthy extension.  Could this make too much sense for Danny Ainge?

WILL IT HAPPEN?

Well, it could.  Both Danny Ainge and Geoff Petrie are still looking to make some moves.  Petrie seems to have realized next season’s roster is not on par with the rest of the West.  The Kings would get to move Bibby out of the Western Conference and avoid a potential haunting.  Boston addresses their most glaring need with arguably the best available option for them.

If Sacto pulled this off, they would probably look to move Artest to a team that feels they my only be one All-Star away or they may give him an extension.  The Kings would continue to look for prospects or expiring contracts in any deal.  Miami has Dorrell Wright and Jason Williams.  The Lakers have Kwame Brown and Javaris Crittenden.  The Clips have Maggette and the rehabbing Shaun Livingston.  Memphis has Warrick, Gay and Lowry.  The Knicks have David Lee.

As always with trade speculation, sometimes a great-looking deal seems to be reason enough as to why it wouldn’t happen!   Here’s hoping the width of the continent is not too much to get in the way of Ainge-Petrie discussions.