With the number two selection in next week’s draft, one of the most marketable stars in the NBA on the mend, a baby-faced coach with no experience in the role and one of the league’s thinnest rosters, it’s anyone’s guess as to which direction the Heat are taking into the future. 

Except Heat President Pat Riley, who knows exactly what he’s doing.  Riley has been playing the media and other general managers like a game of chess.  Every rumor and comment out of the Heat camp has been leaked as a part of his master plan.

The question is: What does his plan call for?  Does he plan to rebuild the Heat roster with youth or does he think he can put together a roster ready to compete next season?

When Riley stepped down from the head coaching position, he named a 37 year-old Filipino-American, Erik Spoelstra, to be his replacement. 

Last week they hired David Fizdale, 34, as an assistant coach.  Fizdale is known as a teacher more than a coach.  He has spent the past five seasons molding the young players in Atlanta and Golden State. 

Theses moves seem to indicate a rebuilding process is about to take place.  The team is just two years removed from an NBA title, but only Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem and Dorrell Wright remain from that roster. 

Aside from Wade and Haslem, Shawn Marion is the only other player on the roster that is a legit NBA starter – and each of these three have their own on-going issues.

Wade, 26, played just 51 games last season and had to be shut down because of a knee that never fully recovered from surgery last summer.  Flash can still score (24.6 ppg last season), but his speed and vertical appear to be declining much earlier than the Heat had hoped. 

It appears at this point that Shawn Marion will be back.  He would be foolish to opt out of a contract that will pay him over $17 million next season.  He may try to reach an extension (recent reports have him looking for three years and $45 million), but it’s likely he will wait until next summer to become a free agent.  More teams will be able to make bids on him then.  Plus, if the Heat do decide to rebuild, Marion is most valuable to them as $17 million coming off the books at the end of the season.

Udonis Haslem had been a rock for the Heat from ’03 to ‘07.  However, the 28 year-old managed just 49 games last season because of multiple, recurring problems with his left ankle.  The undersized power forward and the Heat finally opted for surgery in March.

The situation gets even bleaker at point guard and center.  Marcus Banks and Mark Blount are the incumbent starters but there is a very good chance that they will not hold those spots come October.

The Mastermind
Early reports said the Heat were high on Derrick Rose, who has been working out with Dwyane Wade in Chicago.  He would seemingly complete a superstar backcourt that could get Miami back to the playoffs.  However, Rose, from Chicago, appears to be the first overall selection by the Bulls.  It is likely that the shot callers in Chicago were further encouraged to select him when they learned Riley coveted the University of Memphis star. 

More recent information may be more reliable.  It tells us that Riley would be concerned about having a starting backcourt that lacks a reliable three-point shooter.  Aside from that, he’s probably well aware that there has not been a successful NBA point guard who left after his freshman year (due respect to Mike Conley who still could reverse this trend) since Stephon Marbury came out in 1996 – and we are all well aware of how his career has turned out.

If Riley wanted the Bulls to take Rose, then he would rub some dirt on Michael Beasley’s name – another ploy to make sure he gets his man.  Those following the situation have read that the Heat are down on the phenom because forward is the only position they are set at.  Riley was very public about his “disappointment” when Beasley measured less than 6-foot-8.  His continued “interest” in guard O.J. Mayo is probably nothing more than another smokescreen.

Beasley is who the Heat have wanted all along.  Riley knows he may have Marion for just one more season, if that, and that Haslem is no guarantee. 

Now Riley has made it public knowledge that the Heat are fielding several calls for Haslem, their damaged power forward with a championship ring.  This is a popular tactic used to get the phone ringing and to get trade partners to up the ante. 

If nothing else, the Heat president is known to be cunning. He knows there are multiple young point guards on the market – 20-something floor generals with legitimate experience, instead of 19 year-old hype magnets.

Among the point guards on the trading block are:

• Mo Williams, 25 – He was heavily courted by Riley last summer before he re-signed with the Bucks for $51.5 million over five seasons.  The GM who signed him to that deal has since been fired and his replacement has promised changes.

• T.J. Ford, 25 – Although there are question marks about his health, he did finish the season strong and played reasonably well in the playoffs.  The Raptors starting point guard position seems to belong to Jose Calderon, who is much more durable.  Ford has averaged 14 points and eight assists as a starter over the past two seasons.

• Kirk Hinrich, 27 – If the Bulls take Rose, there will be too many guards on the roster with Hinrich, Rose, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefolosha, and perhaps restricted free agent Ben Gordon.  Hinrich, whose trade value is at an all-time low, has a long term big money deal. 

• Kyle Lowry, 22 – The Grizzlies have dangled him as trade bait to multiple teams, including Miami, and they have no legitimate bigs other than Darko Milicic.  Lowry may not be any better than Rose but he has NBA experience, he has produced when given the chance and he plays hard.  He’s young, tenacious, and he may be capable of producing for a team back on the rise.

• Jarrett Jack, 24 – This gifted athlete has 99 career starts under his belt, but has not fit in with Portland’s plans very well as indicated by last summer’s signing of Steve Blake, drafting two PGs in the ‘07 draft and giving Brandon Roy more minutes at point guard.  It wouldn’t take much to pry Jack away from trade happy GM Kevin Pritchard.

Drafting Beasley and dealing Haslem for a starting point guard would certainly leave the Heat in better shape but they would still have shallow depth and an old, expensive non-productive center in Blount. 

They wouldn’t be contenders, but they wouldn’t be doormats.  Neither built nor rebuilding.

Trading Beasley
Moving a 19 year-old who just averaged more than 26 points and 12 rebounds during his only year in college seems very dangerous.  But there are plenty of offers out there.

Any deal would likely include Blount and his bloated contract.  The Heat would probably want more players in return than they ship out and there is no shortage of teams that would send multiple prospects and even starters for the right to sign Beasley.

There has been a rumored deal that would send him to Memphis for Lowry, Mike Miller and the No. 5 selection.  This looks like a very good trade because it lands Riley a point guard and one of the game’s top perimeter shooters.  At No. 5 the Heat could possibly land the draft’s top center in Brook Lopez. Or they could trade further down from that slot and pick up one of the second tier centers such as Kosta Koufos, Mareese Speights (out of Florida), DeAndre Jordan or Alexis Ajinca.

What if…
What if Wade is damaged goods?  If the franchise knows that his best years are behind him, they would be wise to trade him and get maximum value in return.  Could the rumored trade to Chicago have any weight? 

Is there any better way to rebuild than with the top two picks in the draft?

Aside from the number one pick, the Heat could likely get the rights to Ben Gordon (the Bulls would not need him with Wade around) and maybe even Joakim Noah. 

There’s no doubt that Noah would relish the opportunity to play back in Florida where he won two national championships while in college.  He had a recent run-in with the law involving beer and marijuana and is likely viewed as a distraction by no-nonsense GM John Paxson.  With Wade on board, they would regain the win-now attitude they had just two seasons ago.

Bringing Gordon in gives Riley the three-point shooter he needs around Haslem, Marion and the league’s most impressive trio of youngsters – Rose, Beasley and Noah. 

Moving Wade would also open up enough cap space to go out and grab the best center on the market – DeSagana Diop, 25.

Mix in young Heat role-players Daequan Cook and Dorrell Wright with fresh-faced coaches Spoelstra and Fizdale and Riley has his rebuilding Heat on full blast.

There’s a lot of speculation as to what Pat Riley and the Heat will do, but we have to believe that the man with five championship rings has a plan.  His current roster is among the worst in the NBA so expect to see it overhauled this summer.

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