No team has an opportunity to impact the immediate success of their franchise this off-season more so than the Washington Wizards. 

The face of the Wizards, Gilbert Arenas, stated earlier this month that he will opt out of the final year of his contract, and $12.8 million, making him a free agent this summer.

Another Wizards All-Star, Antawn Jamison has played out his contract and is now widely regarded as the best current free agent (A number of All-Star caliber players have player options in their contracts, like Arenas, that would allow them to become free agents this summer).  The forward led the Wizards in points and rebounds last season and was one of just fifteen players to average a double-double.

The State of the Franchise
The departures leave Ernie Grunfeld’s team roughly $20 million under the cap to improve a team that went 43-39 last season.  There are a lot of holes to fill and he must be shrewd with his signings. 

The center position is the only one on the roster with satisfactory depth.  The Wizards have Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas and Andray Blatche manning the post.  Although none of them are all-stars, they are all adequate players who are relatively young.

The best player on the roster is All-Star Caron Butler who is most comfortable starting at small forward.  However, he does not currently have a back-up on the roster with the exception of the seldom used Dominic McGuire.

The Wizards resigned DeShawn Stevenson last year to start at off-guard but he shot under 40% while averaging just 11.2 points per game.  Head coach Eddie Jordan has to hope that last year’s first round pick, Nick Young, will come into his own next year and challenge Stevenson for the starting job.

With both Arenas and Roger Mason due to be free agents, Antonio Daniels is the only point guard left on the roster.  Although effective, Daniels is 33 and will need someone to spell him for up to twenty minutes per game.  He may be best suited to come off of the bench and as a spot starter.

Finally, at power forward the Wizards have veteran Darius Songaila who is a quality back-up but has never been a consistent starter.

The bulk of their excess cash should, not surprisingly, be spent at the positions previously manned by their two all-star free agents, power forward and point guard. 

With $20 million on hand, Washington could welcome back one of its departing all-stars but it will not have enough cap room to re-sign them both.

The Market
In looking at the current free-agent market, Jamison and Arenas would be at the top of the talent list with a very steep drop-off following the two.  It seems incredibly likely that the Wizards will retain at least one of the two players, but whom?

Arenas is searching for a deal in the six year/$100 million range.  He is just 26 and has already been to three all-star games.  He has a career average of nearly 23 points per game and is one of the most likeable and charismatic stars in the NBA. 

But his knee and position are big concerns to NBA general managers.  He has had two surgeries on his left knee in less than two years.  He also carries the dreaded title of shoot-first point-guard.  It has to also be taken into consideration that the team played better without Arenas last season than it did with him.  In his healthy 2006-07 season, they won just 41 contests compared to 43 victories last season.

Mason, a local product, is a free-agent and there is a good chance that he returns.  He was forced to start in nine games at point guard last season and managed 17.4 ppg in those appearances.  The 6’5” 27 year-old showed plenty of range last season by hitting nearly 40% of his three-point attempts.

Other free agents at point guard include Chris Duhon, Jason Williams and Carlos Arroyo.  Each of these players could be signed for less than $4 million per season and would welcome the chance to log major minutes in Washington.

Jamison is coming off an all-star campaign in which he averaged 21.4 points and a career high 10.2 rebounds per game.  He has missed just 29 games over the past eight seasons.  However on June 12 he turns 32 and will likely ask for a five year deal in the $50-$60 million range.

The market for power forwards is incredibly thin.  Aside from Jamison, the next best options are Kwame Brown and Eduardo Najera, neither of whom the Wizards would likely be interested in. 

This makes the re-signing of Jamison nearly mandatory and the likelihood of Arenas leaving even greater. 

The Wizards may get into a bidding war for Jamison with the Charlotte Bobcats.  The Bobcats have more cap space than any other team and are loaded with UNC alums like Jamison.  General Manager Michael Jordan, head coach Larry Brown, and national champions Raymond Felton and Sean May all hail from UNC.  If this is the case, they would be wise to try and work a sign-and-trade for the #9 pick and/or one of their many talented wing players (Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, Jared Dudley and Adam Morrison may all be available).

The other option at power forward would be a sign-and-trade deal sending Arenas to the Indiana Pacers for Jermaine O’Neal.  A sign-and-trade of Arenas for O’Neal is not out of the question considering Indiana’s need for a point guard and Jim O’Brien’s love for perimeter shooting.

O’Neal has two more seasons and just over $44 million remaining on his contract.  It should be noted that he, like Arenas, is coming off of knee injuries and has missed an average of thirty games per season over the past four years.

Vote Jamison
With a dearth of available power forwards to step into the opening in D.C., the Wizards have to make re-signing Jamison their priority.  The Charlotte Bobcats will pursue him and may drive his price tag up to 5 years/$60 million which may seem too steep for a 32 year-old. 

But Jamison is coming off of his best season yet and despite averaging over ten boards per game, he is not a banger.  He has never had a significant injury or surgery and he should be a contributor throughout the length of this deal.  His perimeter range and basketball IQ will always make him a difficult defensive assignment and are unlikely to fade with age.

The Wizards were 23-16 with a starting lineup of Daniels-Stevenson-Butler-Jamison-Haywood and they would be wise to keep that crew in tact.

What Arena will Arenas Call Home?
Arenas is your classic NBA red flag.  He is one of the “stars of the league” but concerns about his knee must be figured into his next contract.  Although he is likely to get a five or six year deal, GM’s would be wiser to offer something closer to 2 years/$32 million for the recovering all-star.  Another option would be to write a team option into his contract after the second or third year, similar to Antoine Walker’s current deal that will allow the Timberwolves to forego the remaining $20 million on his contract after next season.

Where will Arenas go?  Given the current market, most teams would be best off acquiring him in a sign-and-trade that allow them to move some of their salaries back to the Wizards in order to afford Agent Zero. 

The Memphis Grizzlies could make a play at him and move him to the off-guard where he might be better off.

The most interesting option is the Los Angeles Clippers.  Arenas longs to play in a big market (and his hometown) and may take a pay cut to play in L.A.  Assuming that Corey Maggette opts out of the final year of his deal, the Clippers will be nearly $14 million under the cap.  Elton Brand has a player option that could free up another $16+ million but it is unlikely he will leave.  Finally, oft-injured point guard Shaun Livingston is a restricted free agent.  If Arenas were to sign in L.A., the Clippers may let the 22 year-old walk away.

Much of the off-season player movement will focus on these two former Wizards.  One will likely stay while the other is shown the door.  The Wizards brass would be wise to let go of their hearts’ desire, Arenas, and cast the rational vote for Antawn Jamison.

The Draft and other Free Agents
Grunfeld’s Wizards hold the 18th and 47th picks in the 2008 NBA Draft and will likely keep them both.  They may rule out drafting a center or shooting guard because of their relative depth and youth at those positions. 

Mareese Speights (6’10” 250, Florida So.) or Donte Greene (6’10” 225, Syracuse Fr.) would be an ideal fit if they fall to number eighteen.  Speights has already worked out once for the Wizards indicating that they like what they have seen from him thus far.  Greene is another local product (Baltimore) and would undoubtedly be a popular pick.

Other possible fits at #18 include:  Kosta Koufos (7’0” 250, Ohio St. Fr.), J.J. Hickson (6’9” 235, NC State Fr.), Ty Lawson (5’11” 195, North Carolina So.), Jason Thompson (6’10” 245, Rider Sr.), Ryan Anderson (6’10” 235, Cal So.) and Mario Chalmers (6’2” 180, Kansas Jr.).

It is more difficult to determine who will be around at #43.  NBDL product Mike Taylor (6’2”, 205) has been moving up draft boards and could play either guard position.  Other combo guards the Wizards may look at for this pick include:  Kyle Weaver (6’5” 200, Wash St. Sr.), Jamont Gordon (6’4” 220, Miss. St. Jr.), Lester Hudson (6’3” 190, Tenn. Martin Jr.), Drew Neitzel (6’1” 180, Mich. St. Sr.) or Anton Ponkrashov (6’7” 205, Khimki).  If they look to add a power forward in this slot they will hope that either Devon Hardin (6’10” 240, Cal Sr.) or Omri Casspi (6’8” 220, Maccabi Tel Aviv) is still available. 

Other free agents that may top the Wizards list include veterans Devean George, Eddie House, and Bonzi Wells.  All three players will be available for the mid-level exception or less.

Photos Courtesy of USAToday.com

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