When looking ahead to the star-studded NBA Finals that will start tomorrow, it is difficult to envision how this series will play out. 

Since the playoffs began, I have predicted the Celtics to win it all because “they just cannot be beat at home.”  They will again have home court this series and are 10-1 at TD Banknorth Garden.  Their Finals opponents, the Lakers, are an average 4-3 on the road.  In 2008, higher seeds have won eleven of twelve series.

With three sure-fire Hall-of-Famers who have never won a title, expect to see a focused and patient Celtics squad.  Not one game will be mailed in against L.A. which was the case against Atlanta and Cleveland.  This team has been eyeing a championship since October, something which cannot be said of the Lakers.  Just as they have done throughout the playoffs, the Celtics will play better the closer they get to the trophy.  They will not flinch at the added pressure of the media.  This is what they have expected all along.

If the Spurs and Pistons have taught us anything this decade it is that defense wins championships.  Tracy McGrady called this Celtics defense the best he’s seen in his eleven years and he is one to know.  They allowed less than 91 points per game while holding their opponents to the lowest field goal and three point percentages of any team during the regular season.  Kobe Bryant shot just fifteen of forty-six (33 percent) in his two regular-season match-ups against Boston. 

In the Eastern Conference Finals, they out-rebounded the Pistons by nearly eight per game.  The Lakers’ timid front-line of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Vladimir Radmanovic figures to do even worse.  Both Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett will feast on double-doubles in these Finals.  Injured Laker Andrew Bynum would be an enormous difference maker in this series.  Next year he may get his shot.

Who will Radmanovic, L.A.’s other starting forward, defend?  Early signs point to Paul Pierce or Kevin Granett, both of whom will destroy Radmanovic.  In the past three series they were able to hide him on the offensively-inept trio of Bruce Bowen, Andrei Kirilenko and Kenyon Martin.  Phil Jackson will have no such luxury against the Celtics. 

It seems that a lot of people have been touting the Lakers bench as superior to the Celtics but I could not disagree more.  The Lakers bench is very young and inexperienced.  Their most effective bench player in the playoffs has been three-point specialist Sasha Vujacic.  The Celtics can defend the three-point line with the best of them and should neutralize his contributions. 

James Posey will be a big time contributor off of Boston’s bench.  He has one ring under his belt already and is deserving of his defensive-stopper and clutch-shooter titles.  Sam Cassell and P.J. Brown will both have their moments righting the ship in L.A.  Leon Powe and Glen Davis should produce better than their counterpart, Ronny Turiaf. 

I am confident the Celtics will win this series except for one single variable – Phil Jackson.  I cannot fathom how he will not simply out coach Doc Rivers.  Will he use Turiaf and Luke Walton more frequently to offset Boston’s front court advantage?  Will he order Kobe to penetrate regularly to draw Ray Allen and Paul Pierce into foul trouble?  Will he work the refs to the tune of fifteen more free-throw attempts per game a la the Utah series?

I am sticking with the Celtics in seven games.  Their home-court advantage, defense, depth and rebounding will be too much for the Lakers to overcome, regardless of the obvious coaching advantage that sides with Los Angeles.  



Pierce will be declared Finals MVP and instantly be talked about as one of the greatest Celtics to ever play the game.

The consolation prize for the Lakers is that they are the youngest Finals team since the 2001-02 Nets, who made it back to the Finals the next season.  Furthermore, they made it this far without their starting center, Bynum.  The twenty year-old seven-footer averaged a double-double this season and led the Lakers in blocked shots per game.  His mere presence would likely change the outcome of this entire series.  Turiaf is the only rotation player that is not signed for next season and that may change shortly after this series.  Odds are that these Lakers will get a shot at the championship again in 2009.

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