What defines a bust?  A bust is essentially a player that you have high expectations for, a player that has produced well in the past, but then fails to live up to their draft positions.  The best way to identify a bust is to look closely at his team’s off-season moves and how they might affect the playing time of the player.  A new coach’s style or added/subtracted depth at a position can often predict how a player’s production might change.  Often, a player who is coming off major surgery will not perform up to expectations, as is the case with my number one fantasy bust, Heat guard Dwyane Wade. 

Regardless, the following ten players all have red flags associated with them that need to be carefully scrutinized before your draft.

1. Dwyane Wade – Major shoulder and knee surgeries will cause the former Finals’ MVP to miss significant time this season.  He will not likely play before December, and once he does comeback, no one knows how long he will last.  Wade’s break-neck style of play is not likely to change which could likely lead to multiple DNPs as his repaired 25 year-old body will be more sensitive to injury.  His scoring will take a significant hit as his perimeter game remains a work in progress and less penetration will result in less FT attempts.  If the Heat struggle, with or without him, look for Pat Riley to end Wade’s season early in order not to further risk another off-season without basketball for his franchise player. 

Average draft position: 7th overall, 2nd SG
Draft recommendation:  3rd round or lower


2. Yao Ming – Ming is widely regarded as the best center in the game and deservedly so.  However, the Rockets’ new coach Rick Adelman brings a style of play that is not conducive to the 7’6” plodder’s strengths.  Adelman and his guard and wing heavy roster will look to be very active in transition and Ming will not be able to keep up.  Ming has averaged just 53 games played over the past two seasons.  While he should stay healthy and play more games, it is likely his minutes will decline from 35 to 30 per night until the playoffs.  Don’t be surprised if you look out in the Toyota Center and see 6’9” Luis Scola or 6’8” Shane Battier running the floor in Ming’s spot when Adelman goes with his smaller attacking lineups.

Average draft position:  12th overall, 2nd C
Draft recommendation:  3rd round – Depends on other players’ C eligibility.


3. Michael Redd – Redd has solidified himself as an All-Star in the league after averaging over 25 points over the past two seasons and holding his own on Team USA this summer.  It’s no secret that he plays with a nagging left knee, but what will hurt his fantasy value this season will be the decline in his number of shots attempts.  With Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons 100% recovered from injuries, head coach Larry Krystowiak mustt find them opportunities on offense.  The Bucks also signed swingman Desmond Mason and resigned shoot-first guards Mo Williams and Charlie Bell.  Furthermore, Yi Jianlian was brought in and promised significant playing time.  It’s no secret that he too is a shooter and a perimeter one at that.  Simply put, on a team loaded with shooters, Redd’s attempts and points will decline.  His threes will still likely be near tops in the league, but he is not a well-rounded player.  Drafting Redd will leave you disappointed with his scoring and hurt your team in other stat categories.

Average draft position:  31st overall, 8th SG
Draft recommendation:  15th SG overall or lower


4. Mike Miller – Miller played significantly more minutes (39.1 per game) than he had in any other season with last year’s last place Grizzlies.  Most of his minutes were a result of a shallow, injury-plagued roster.  The Grizzlies are deeper this year and will find more playing time for their young players.  Don’t forget, Miller has a significant history of injuries.  His summer of playing with Team USA, coupled with his exhaustive 2006-07, will linger throughout 2007-08.

Average draft position:  50th overall, 10th SF
Draft recommendation:  20th SF


5. Jason Terry – Terry officially shifts to SG this season as the Mavs invested heavily in backcourt mate, PG Devin Harris.  But what makes Terry’s bust season a reality is the presence of much better defenders backing him up.  Eddie Jones, Trenton Hassell and Devean George are all significantly bigger than Terry and can guard the position more soundly.  And do not forget 6th man Jerry Stackhouse.  If Terry struggles early in games, Avery Johnson will turn to his bench quickly.  His assists will certainly decline and his points per game will not be far behind.

Average draft position:  41st overall, 9th PG
Draft recommendation:  15th PG – slightly above Harris


6. Mehmet Okur – Okur struggled in the second half of last season and then hit a low in the playoffs as he averaged just 11.8 ppg and shot under 40%.  Opposing coaches are beginning to figure out how to neutralize him.  He has never been a good rebounder for a center and the presence of Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko looks to continue that trend.  Also, with the emergence of second-year PF Paul Millsap, the front line will have to make space and Okur is the least effective starter.

Average draft position:  51st overall, 6th C
Draft recommendation:  12th C – Depends on other players’ C eligibility.


7. Al Jefferson – Jefferson had his arrival last season, capitalizing on his role that demanded plenty of opportunities on a terrible team.  His team may not be much better this season, but it appears to be deeper and more importantly, in the Western Conference.  The West is loaded with big men, although Elton Brand’s injury and the moves of Zach Randolph and Kevin Garnett greatly lessen the competition from recent years.  Many expect an All-Star season from Al but not so fast.  Aside from his fantastic rebounding totals, Jefferson tends to be very inconsistent.  Look for that to continue as the 22 year-old tries to adapt to his new coach, conference, and teammates.

Average draft position:  30th overall, 8th PF
Draft recommendation:  15th PF


8. LeandroBarbosa/Raja Bell – Barbosa burst on the scene as one of the top 20 fantasy players last season and Bell has been Mr. Consistency on a Phoenix Suns team that has won 177 games over the past three seasons.  Both may see a diminished role with an emergence from PG Marcus Banks and signing of wingman Grant Hill.  Coach Mike D’Antoni has been impressed with Banks’ new attitude and understanding of the offense.  25 year-old will likely see far more minutes this year.  Hill primarily played the SG position in Orlando last season.  This summer was the first off-season since 2000 that the future Hall-of-Famer has been able to work on fine-tuning his game and he hopes to make new GM Steve Kerr look like a genius.  Finally, D’Antoni will try to keep his players fresher for the playoffs and distribute playing time more evenly this season.  Expect the presence of a championship-hungry Hill and reputation-saving Banks to drive the fantasy values of Barbosa and Bell slightly downhill.  

Barbosa average draft position:  36th overall
Draft recommendation:  Bench rounds
Bell average draft position:  62nd overall
Draft recommendation:  Bench rounds


9. Free Agents – Aside from Rashard Lewis, it’s hard to imagine any of this summer’s big signings improving on last season.  Gerald Wallace, Andres Nocioni, Desmond Mason, Grant Hill, Mo Williams, Morris Peterson, Steve Blake, Jason Kapono and Matt Carroll all find themselves on teams that will offer them fewer shots and likely fewer minutes than last season.  Chauncey Billups was already showing decline.  Vince Carter had one of his best seasons ever and will be fortunate to duplicate it.  Luke Walton may have already lost his starter’s job.  Finally, Darko Milicic will contend with Stromile Swift and Hakim Warrick for minutes.  His historic bashing of EuroBasket officials is not likely helping his cause.

Draft recommendation:  Aside from Carter and Lewis, let the other owners overpay for them.


10. Kings PF – PF/C Mikki Moore comes off a career-prolonging season with the Nets and into a playing time scrum on the West Coast.  Brad Miller and Spencer Hawes will be sharing the center position leaving a mediocre, yet deep, battle for the PF spot.  Moore projects to win the battle over incumbents Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Kenny Thomas but he still will not see 30 minutes per game.   Abdur-Rahim is recovering from yet another surgery and Thomas will try and rebound from his worst season as a pro.  Finally, 6’10” Justin Williams looked very good in the summer league and may contend with the 30 year-old vets for minutes.  New coach Reggie Theus will have plenty of egos to massage in his NBA debut.

Draft recommendation:  Don’t touch them


Photos Courtesy of espn.com