| 16 April 2010
How did the Hawks get here?
It's been said countless times before, but these are not your older brother's Atlanta Hawks. Gone are the days when fans are satisfied by simply having a winning record or giving a championship contender a scare in the first round. No, these Hawks want to make a serious push to get to the Eastern Conference Championship and beyond. And for the first time this millennium, they are built to do so. Armed with 2 all-stars in Joe Johnson and Al Horford and a shoo-in for First Team All-Defense in Josh Smith, this team can taste their first trip to the Conference finals since 1970. The addition of leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Jamal Crawford, during the off-season imbued the squad with a killer instinct that it had lacked in previous season, and a deadly scorer to take the some of the load off of Joe Johnson during crunch time. Combined with the continued development of their role players, and a feeling of hunger that is close to unmatched (While other teams were resting, the Hawks went 4-0 to close out the season), the Hawks are now among the elite teams in the NBA. All in all, the Baby Hawks have grown up.
How did the Bucks get here?
Before the season, the Milwaukee Bucks were almost universally picked by the pundits to be at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. However, what those people did not count on was the leadership of rookie point guard Brandon Jennings, who immediately shouldered the role of floor general as soon as he stepped onto his first NBA court, putting up a line of 17 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds in his debut. They did not foresee Andrew Bogut becoming one of the premier centers in the league, especially on the defensive end by leading the league by far in combined blocks (2nd) and charges taken (4th). Their trade deadline acquisition of John Salmons seemed to push them over the edge from good team to great, as for a few short weeks, Milwaukee had the world chanting "Fear the Deer" as they rattled off 14 wins in their next 16 games. But then during one fateful game against the Phoenix Suns on April 2nd, their hopes came crashing down when Andrew Bogut mangled his entire right arm in one of the most gruesome injuries we've seen since Shaun Livingston's. And just like that, the Bucks went from being the team no one wanted to see, to the one you prayed that your team would face.
More After The Jump
Match-Up History
07/08 - Tied 2-2 in the Regular Season (Bucks Not Under Skiles)
08/09 - Hawks 3-1 in the Regular Season
09/10 - Hawks 2-1 in the Regular Season
Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard: Mike Bibby vs. Brandon Jennings
I want to give this to Jennings in a walkover based on the flashes of brilliance that the young point guard has shown us in his rookie season. He has demonstrated that he can function both as a true point guard, making sure the offense runs smoothly and everyone is involved, and also as a deadly scorer, lighting it up from all areas of the court. However, the reality of the situation is that Jennings is devastatingly inconsistent. His ability to finish within 10 feet of the basket and at the rim has fallen off drastically since the beginning of the season, a statistic that isn't helped by the fact that Atlanta will have Josh Smith, possibly the best weak side shot blocker in the league, waiting in the wings every time Jennings inevitably blows past Mike Bibby, who isn't exactly known for his perimeter defense. For Bibby, the task is simple: bother Jennings' shot behind the arc, run the offense, and knock down the occasional three-pointer. The playoffs are when his veteran leadership will truly come into play.
Advantage: Push
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson vs. Carlos Delfino
If Joe Johnson wants to get that max contract he thinks he deserves this off-season, he needs to reach into himself and pull out a spectacular performance in this series. And with this match-up, he can do exactly that. While Delfino isn't a slacker on the defensive end per se, Johnson is simply more athletic in every way. It is no surprise that Johnson has put up 24, 27, and 31 points respectively in the three times the teams have met this season. Honestly, I'm not sure what the Bucks can do to slow him down. John Salmons doesn't match-up particular well against the Armadillo Cowboy either and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will have his hands with Josh Smith. Basically, they just have to do their best and pray that he misses shots.
Advantage: Atlanta
Small Forward: Marvin Williams vs. John Salmons
John Salmons needs to have a huge series if Milwaukee wants to have any chance at all. Since coming to Milwaukee, he has been a model of efficiency, with a 58.3 True Shooting Percentage to go along with a 19.9 PPG scoring average. However, with Marvin Williams guarding him, achieving that will be no walk in the park, especially if Atlanta's shot-blocking presence inside forces him to become a jump shooter. Salmons only weakness since coming to Milwaukee might be that he is attempting shots from between 10 to 15 feet at nearly double the rate that he has ever before, despite only making 40% of them. On offense, Williams needs to help space the floor so that Johnson, Crawford, Smith and Horford can go to work. If he can body up inside against Salmons, he'll also be able to use his considerable size advantage to manufacture some efficient points as well.
Advantage: Milwaukee
Power Forward: Josh Smith vs. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Mbah a Moute has evolved this year from a serviceable role player to one of the best defenders in the league, drawing the assignment of guarding the league's best players from Kobe Bryant to LeBron James to Kevin Durant. However, while Josh Smith's insane athleticism allows him to rack up points against most of the players guarding him on any given night, his money is made on the defensive end. In his three games against Milwaukee this season, he has averaged 10.7 rebounds and 3.7 blocks, including 8 and 6 respectively in the game with Andrew Bogut out. With no real post presence on the Bucks, Smith is free to roam the paint and deny any guard's attempt at a close shot, which will make life a living hell for Milwaukee.
Advantage: Atlanta
Center: Al Horford vs. Kurt Thomas
If Andrew Bogut were available, Horford and Smith would have to stay at home on the blocks, which would open up driving lanes for Jennings and Salmons to go to the hoop. If Andrew Bogut were available, his impeccable passing abilities would open up tons of open jumpers for Delfino, Bell, Jennings and anyone else who might be waiting at the three-point line when a double-team collapses on him in the post. If Andrew Bogut were available, this match-up might be worth talking about. As it stands though, Al Horford figures to manhandle the aging Kurt Thomas down low. Horford pulled down 12 boards in each of the last two match-ups between these two teams, a trend that figures to continue throughout this series.
Advantage: Atlanta
Bench: Crawford/Pachulia/Evans/Teague vs. Ilyasova/Ridnour/Bell/Warrick/Stackhouse
Don't get me wrong, Milwaukee's bench is no slouch. Ilyasova, a.k.a Turk Nowitzki, has been one of the big surprises that has fueled the Bucks' road to the playoffs. Ridnour, as always, has provided savvy point guard play and has allowed Jennings to get some needed rest so as not to it the rookie wall. Bell, Warrick, and Stackhouse have all provided much needed scoring for the Bucks' sometimes-anemic offense, without sacrificing too much on the defensive end. However, the story of the bench match-up begins and ends with Jamal Crawford. It's almost unfair to include him in here, as he is second on the Hawks in both PPG and MPG. Since arriving in Atlanta, Crawford has continued to do the one thing he knows how to: Score at will from everywhere on the court. As good as Milwaukee's defense is, they'll be hard-pressed to find an answer for him.
Advantage: Atlanta
Coaching: Mike Woodson vs. Scott Skiles
Some criticize Scott Skiles' military style of coaching, but he is the one of the main factors behind why the Bucks are where they are right now. He has gotten every one of his players to buy into his defense-based system, most notably Brandon Jennings, whom many feared to have a massive ego coming into this season. Pretty much no player on the Bucks has underperformed expectations this season, which is a testament to how well of a coaching job Skiles has done. While Mike Woodson is not necessarily the most celebrated coach in the world, the Hawks' record has improved in each of the 6 seasons he has been with the team. On the other hand, he is often regarded as one of the worst coaches in the league when it comes to making in-game adjustments. Luckily for him, those will probably not be necessary in this series.
Advantage: Milwaukee
Prediction: Atlanta in 4 games
The Bucks have been a great story this past year, but I can't see them doing any sort of real damage without Andrew Bogut. They have absolutely no post presence now on either end of the floor and to say that they will struggle to score points, especially against this very good Hawks defense, is a gross understatement. On the other side, the Hawks have huge advantages at almost every position, especially down low. Smith, Horford, Pachulia, and Williams have far too much length for the Bucks to deal with, so you can expect to see the Hawks win the rebounding and points in the paint battles handily every game. At the same time, the Bucks have demonstrated their inability to contain Joe Johnson at all this season, and they'll be lucky to hold him under 25 PPG this series. Overall, Milwaukee is simply overmatched here, and the fairytale will have to come to an end.
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