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Written by Zach Harper
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Monday, 26 October 2009 17:34 |
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The Atlanta Hawks seem to be one of those teams stuck in limbo.
There’s nothing especially special about them and they ARE a good basketball team. However, I find it hard to believe they could ever win 50 games two seasons in a row as constructed but I would be shocked if they ever finished as low as .500. It’s like the entire team is constructed to remind people of Marvin Williams. He’s a fine player and they’re a fine team. But he’s never going to be something you fear. The potential for him is tapped completely. At the same time, he’ll never be someone you regret having on the court.
He’s just in limbo, much like this team.
Record Last Year: 47-35
Players Welcomed: Jamal Crawford, Joe Smith, Jeff Teague, Jason Collins
Players Kicked to the Curb: Acie Law IV, Craig Claxton, Solomon Jones, Flip Murray
Five Questions
1. Does Jamal Crawford fit in?
Well, yes he fits in. But does he make that much more of a difference than what Flip Murray gave them last season? Now, that’s probably the better question. Jamal Crawford is an extremely talented scorer with a very short-sided sense of shot selection. He’s also a terrible defender and in every season of his career, his teams have given up a more points defensively than they’ve scored when he’s on the court. In fact, his career numbers are almost exactly in line with what Flip Murray has given his teams. So why acquire him?
Because he tricks fans into thinking that the team has made a concerted effort to improve the overall talent of the team. Jamal Crawford probably has more talent than Flip Murray does but he doesn’t properly execute that talent. He plays to what he thinks he should do over what he can do to be a more effective, efficient player. Flip on the other hand has been grounded throughout his career by having to fight for minutes and be as efficient as his talents allow so that he can find time on the court. Essentially what the Hawks did was acquire a higher-priced version of Flip Murray in order to make the Hawks fans believe this team is making a run towards more success in the post-season. If that won’t raise ticket sales (20th in the league last year), then I don’t know what will.
2. Do the Hawks have enough size?
The Hawks currently employ five guys who are 6’10” or taller. Unfortunately, two of those guys are Jason Collins and Randolph Morris, so they really only have three. This causes the Hawks to play Marvin Williams and Josh Smith out of position at the four when they probably would be better suited defensively at the three. Can the Hawks survive with just Joe Smith, Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia posing as the presence inside?
They’ll always be able to beat the lesser, bigger teams in the East because they’re so talented on the wings. They can ride Joe Johnson’s offensive versatility and provide him with great support on the wings with Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Mo Evans, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith. But perimeter play can only get you so far in this league, especially when dealing with talented teams like Cleveland, Orlando, and Boston that boast some serious size inside. Now you’re asking Al Horford to be Tim Duncan and Yao Ming on most nights when he’s not really suited to do so. Maybe the Hawks can flip Jamal Crawford and his expiring contract around the trade deadline for a big man that can give them a more balanced squad. But as of right now, their lack of size inside keeps them from being taken seriously as a big-time team in the East.
3. Has Josh Smith reached his ceiling?
While his potential is seemingly unlimited, Josh Smith’s ceiling seems to be smacking him right on the head as a player. Usually when players peak at the age of 23, they find themselves out of the league in a year or three and are remembered as a complete bust of a prospect. Josh Smith is a special case though, if in fact he HAS reached his ceiling as an NBA player. He gives the Hawks a versatile weapon of choice that can fly through the air on both ends of the floor and make things happen. However, when you look at him in terms of a skill set, he has some serious holes in his game.
Although he improved last season, turnovers are a bit of a problem for Smith. He doesn’t pass very well in terms of decision-making and he’s a solid dribbler as long as he doesn’t have to make any moves in the open court. He also has a terrible shot from the outside. Last season he shot jump shots on 47% of his attempts but only made an efficient percentage of 34.9% on those jumpers. And yet, he shot 49% from the field because he made a lot more shots inside. So why do we assume he’s going to keep growing as a player?
Because he’s beyond athletic. There’s not even a word for it. We’ve really only seen his kind of extra athleticism in iRobot so we’ll just call him iRobotic instead of athletic from here on out. We’re completely mesmerized by his iRobotic ability and therefore, we always give him the benefit of the doubt. So I will say, yes, to the question of whether or not Josh Smith has reached his ceiling. It doesn’t mean he’ll get worse any time soon. We can expect a couple of peaks and valleys over the next 10 years, when that iRoboticism starts to fade away. But he’ll never really be a better player than he his now.
4. How long will Mike Woodson last?
As long as this team keeps winning, he’ll stay with the Hawks. He’s 104 games under .500 for his career but he coached Atlanta to a 47-win season last year. The problem with Mike Woodson is that his team has outgrown his coaching ability. Some would argue that this happened three years ago. Woodson’s shortcomings are plentiful in terms of style of play. Despite having a very athletic team, he keeps the pace of the game slow and steady. They were 24th in pace last season. And when it comes to defense, he has the attitude of switching on every screen, even if it creates some of the worst matchups possible for his players.
For the most part, players aren’t stupid. They realize when they can’t be successful in their coach’s system and I’m sure veterans like Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson realize Woodson isn’t a coach leading them to the Eastern Conference Finals. How long will they put up with him? We’ll know very soon into this season. The Hawks aren’t a dominant team and they aren’t a bad team but if they start out slow and have a .500 or below .500 record through the first month to six weeks of the season, the coaching seat will heat up quickly. The Hawks could fire Woodson, promote Larry Drew to interim and then see how the roster shapes up going into next season before they decide what kind of coach to hire.
5. Is this Joe Johnson’s last season in Atlanta?
Speaking of roster shaping, Joe Johnson is in the final year of his five-year contract and doesn’t seem completely open to staying with the Hawks in his next contract. He turned down a four-year, $60 million extension this off-season in order to play out the market. Why would he turn down that much money? Well, he probably feels like he can get closer to a max contract at the age of 29.
When he’s up for unrestricted free agency this summer, he’ll be eligible for a five-year, $100 million max contract. Is he going to get this number? God no. With the shrinking cap and the poor economy, he’ll be lucky to see $80 million of that. To stay in Atlanta, they’ll have to add a fifth year (player option?) and bring in another big gun to take some of the pressure off of him. Otherwise, I could see him waiting out the initial rush of free agency and joining forces with Mike D’Antoni for the second time as the Knicks desperately overpay to get some talent in MSG.
Prediction: 5th in the East, 3rd in Southeast Division
This Hawks team is good enough to coast through the majority of the season but I’d be surprised if they could make a serious push deep into the second round of the playoffs. It will probably take all they can to win the first round of the playoffs as the fifth seed and even then, it’s unlikely because of their lack of size and rebounding inside.
For excellent Hawks coverage:
Brett LaGree at Hoopinion
Peach Tree Hoops
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